Storm: Underdogs tonight, but why?
I am reading the papers rubbing my hands with glee to see the Melbourne Storm ranked as underdogs going in to tonight's Grand Final qualifier against the St George Illawarra Dragons. This is the same Melbourne Storm side who dominated the 2006 NRL premiership notching up 44 competition points which put them 8 points ahead of second placed Canterbury and 12 points ahead of fifth placed Stg Illawarra. "What is the line of thinking here from the book makers?" one has to ask. I think I have some idea and it is this rationale that could see them out of pocket at 10.00pm tonight.
The first week of the NRL finals pitted Melbourne against the Parramatta Eels who came from the back of the pack to surge in to finals contention under the coaching of Jason Taylor. The Storm had been going through the motions for the few weeks heading in to the finals secure in the knowledge that they were the minor premieres for 2006. They had nothing to play for expect pride in their performance and fine tuning some aspects of their game.
Melbourne lost only one game at home in 2006 and the home final against the Eels side pitting the number one ranked team versus the eighth ranked team was expected to be a blow out. Under the McIntyre system, no eight ranked team had beaten the minor premieres. History and form was against the Eels.
It is fair to say that the expectation placed on the Storm may have got to the players. They looked out of sorts and came up against a Parramatta outfit playing with "nothing to lose" which is a deadly mindset to be playing against when you're expected to win. The Melbourne side got the chocolates in the end with unconvincing 12-6 scoreline. Is it this game that saw Melbourne go from premiership favourites to being fourth ranked behind St George Illawarra, Canterbury and Brisbane heading in to this weekend? You have to think so.
As great teams of yesteryear have done, the Storm did enough to win without getting into top gear. In the back of their mind they also knew they had a security net in the fact that even if they lost, they were still in the finals. I wouldn't read too much in to the "form guide" as book makers have done for tonight's match.
St George Illawarra came in to the finals knowing that they had to win every game or their season was over. First up they met a complacent Brisbane side and won convincingly in all facets of the game. This was the best win of the Dragons season for mine as they were dominant in all areas of the game against a Brisbane side who had built momentum heading in to the finals.
The Dragons then took on a Manly side who looked spent after an epic battle at Energy Australia Stadium versus Joey and his Knights. Manly battled valiantly though they looked a yard or two behind the Dragons who won in convincing fashion minus their most lethal attack player: Mark Gasnier. This is another factor that would add weight to the argument that the Dragons are the favourites to defeat the Storm as Gaz is expected to play tonight.
So, I have to the conclusion that their are two reasons for Melbourne heading in to tonight's game as rank underdogs:
1. Their win against the eighth placed Parramatta Eels wasn't deemed "convincing enough" by the bookies and is being used as a form guide for the Melbourne Storm and
2. The impressive back to back wins by the St George Illawarra Dragons by convincing margins.
The above reasons are sound logic on the surface. If you delve deeper and look at all factors and variables, you can make an argument suggesting such thinking is flawed as the Melbourne Storm at their best is for mine a better team than a Dragons side firing on all cylinders.
History is also being used as a guide given the minor premiers in recent times have not gone on to win the big one. Since 2000, only Brisbane ('00) and Penrith ('03) have took out the double.
Who ever you back tonight, best of luck. Though for those like me who have not invested interest in the game as we are not supporters of either side, I would pay close attention to the odds being offered up for the Melbourne Storm. The Melbourne Storm welcome back Greg Inglis and are schooled by the best coach in the business who will have them fine tuned for this game - right them off at your own peril.
Good luck to both teams tonight, it will be a great game and who ever wins, they will be a deserved Grand Finalist taking on the mighty Brisbane Broncos.