https://astonishingsports.wordpress....tuck-in-act-2/
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Token posted a decent read off that titans fan zone page I'm struggling to link it directly as I don't have Facebook.
https://m.facebook.com/groups/238142596643583/
THE MATH AROUND INTERCHANGE
I had to drill down and get some solid stats around yesterday. Being a data scientist for work, I've gone through and found the proof. There are some caveats;
1. I’ve focused around only our interchange players
2. Dolphins only used 3 of their bench Totalling Phins 6 players, Titans 8
3. In terms of players used against weights and times, they coefficient difference is 75% against the Titans.
4. I’ve used a simple Power/Weight multiplied time spent on field to find out where the problem lays, you can see in the table the clear issue when Mikaele comes off and is replaced by leeming (115kg vs 87kg)
5. I’ve excluded both edge backrowers as both side’s 11 and 12 played 80mins each as they did not interchange.
6. Understandably we made a number of errors that helped the tide. But this should shine a light on the lead up to those erros.
HYPOTHESIS
Does the weight of the players make a difference in the terms of inertia and exertion? Did the Dolphins simply ‘outweigh’ us in size and turn the tide? Is bigger better?
METHOD
Look into the weight of the players against the total time spent on field for the interchange to form a comparison and see if this aligns with points scored.
Each cell indicates minutes X weight with interchanges as the columns. The totals at the bottom are calculated and then compared with the coefficient to give a comparison.
RESULTS
a) From min 38 to min 52 Dolphins scored 12 points to swing the tide of the game and put us on the back foot
b) During this 12min period we had 3 experienced hookers on the field and only 1 prop (who had already played 40mins straight).
c) From the 38min mark to the 73min mark (35mins total) the Phins Power/Weight varied between 3-7% higher than ours
d) The swing reflects the shift in weight of the interchange
CONCLUSION
1. In this instance weight of the interchange players and shift with differences on field correlates with the data shown on the table
2. Momentum of the game DID correlate with weight on field of the interchange.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Phins used 1 Hooker player all game with Jeremy Marshall-King clicking 80mins saving them interchanges for more specialty props on the bench, we don't need anymore than 1 hooker in the 17 to free up an interchange
Our only specialty prop spent 12 minutes on the field, with Phins bench props totalling 74mins. We're relying on Mo and Tino to do too much work.
"forwards win you the match, your backs will determine by how much" - Gordon Tallis