Yeah, I think this is reasonable and we may see some teething issues early in the season.
Personally I'm not too worried when compared to last years spine that somehow managed to put some decent footy together. Sexton was better than Fogarty after 4 NRL games and now has a full pre-season at 7, Ash was Ash and so long as AJ makes his tackles, runs and ball plays at a very basic level he will be an improvement, 2022 JC with some NRL under his belt, a full off-season at 1 will be a big improvement on 2021 JC. Hooker is what it is, but we're not regressing in that area with the same playing group + Smith.
It's not elite by any means but I don't think we'll be going backwards. Lack of NRL games comes with the concern of inexperience but it also comes with the promise of plenty of improvement still to come in these guys as players and as a group.