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  1. #61
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    Updated previous post to clarify that the Defense Score was adjusted by dividing by the Tackle Efficiency, e.g. a base score of -10 with a Tackle Efficiency of 100% remains at -10, whereas if the Tackle Efficiency is 75%, it reduces to -13.33 (-10/0.75 = -13.33).

  2. #62
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    Wilhelm. You have far too much time on your hands

  3. #63

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    Great analysis Willhelm, think Ash has been a lot better this year but it's probably still the inability to deal with high pressure situations that lets him down. It's not through a lack of effort or desire but rather the opposite of trying too hard which forces mistakes in crucial moments. I love Ash but I do doubt that we win that game on Friday v the Warriors if he was still on in those last 10 minutes

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Whats Doing View Post
    Wilhelm. You have far too much time on your hands
    Day off. I do data analysis for a living so it didn’t take me too long.
    Last edited by willhelm; 15-07-20 at 06:06 PM.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by willhelm View Post
    Day off. I do data analysis for a living so it didn’t take me too long.
    I was going to say that would take me about 3 weeks to put together haha

  6. #66

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    Quote Originally Posted by BundyTitan View Post
    Great analysis Willhelm, think Ash has been a lot better this year but it's probably still the inability to deal with high pressure situations that lets him down. It's not through a lack of effort or desire but rather the opposite of trying too hard which forces mistakes in crucial moments. I love Ash but I do doubt that we win that game on Friday v the Warriors if he was still on in those last 10 minutes
    I agree with your comments. Ash has been a little better this year but he is a very average nrl standard half. I've seen enough that I don't believe he will ever make it to top level and he doesn't have the ability or heart to sustain a consistent performance. I'm waiting for the day he is cut or plays Qcup as our back up on a substantially reduced wage. No coincidence we went better last week when he went off. We are wasting our time with him and the quicker we move on the better.
    You can present stats as much as you want but I find my eyes to be the best judge. I remember a stat a few years ago where a team that came second last had the best completion rate. They completed but did nothing with the ball.

  7. #67

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    Quote Originally Posted by willhelm View Post
    Since my last post was a hit and as I have a bit of time on my hands today, I did a bit of a deeper dive on Ash as he cops a lot of criticism, some of which I think is unfair. I've noticed that rugbah leeg fans tend to skew towards pessimism and hone in on the negatives, so hopefully these stats help to make the bigger picture a bit clearer. Namely that Ash is one of the best attacking performers and is far from the worst half overall. Criticism of my scoring methods/analysis is welcome. If mods think this belongs in its own thread, I'm happy to split it out of this match thread.

    ...

    For Attack, the key stats I looked at were: Try Assists (TA), Try Contributions (TC), Total Try Involvements (TTI), Linebreak Assists (LBA), Forced Dropouts (FDO) and 40/20. An overall Attack Score (AS) was then taken as the sum of each of these key stats

    ...

    Conclusions
    Ash’s score of 22 is remarkably good when one considers that his Defence Score is likely significantly affected by the overall team performance. The Titans currently sit second last with 245 points conceded. Only the Cowboys have conceded more points with 253. With upcoming matches against the Storm, Panthers and Roosters, this is unlikely to improve in the short term. Compared to players of equivalent experience / team role (Cleary, Walker, Milford, Brooks), Taylor is second only to Cleary. Milford and Brooks are particularly poor performers, especially given the quality of players around him in Milford’s case. Taylor cops a lot of criticism in the press and from our own fans, but these statistics show that he is actually performing relatively well compared to other halves. If our overall team defence can improve, I expect his Defence and Overall Scores to also improve. I speculate that if Taylor were surrounded by the quality that Cleary is, he would not be far behind.
    G’day Willhelm

    Thanks for the detailed and interesting posts.

    With your Attack Score though, as:
    (1) TTI = TA + TC + tries scored (TS); and
    (2) given that for halves (TA + TC) is usually much larger than TS (as your data shows);
    (TA + TC) and TTI are very highly correlated and so in effect you have counted the same thing twice. This isn’t necessarily “wrong” - perhaps a TA or TC should be worth twice as much as an LBA, FDO or 40/20 in an attacking metric for a half - but it needs to be understood.

    This leads to the more general question of how much weight should any particular stat be given in an overall metric to really capture what you are trying to measure? Check out baseball's "wins above replacement" stat if you haven’t seen it before with regards to the sort of thing that can be done with a decent sized data set.

    Thanks again for the posts; the more numbers on the site the better I reckon!
    Last edited by Numbers; 16-07-20 at 06:45 AM.

  8. #68

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    The game is now a sell out

  9. #69
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    Anyone from the forum going ?

  10. #70
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    STORM v TITANS LeagueUnlimited review
    https://leagueunlimited.com/news/347...itans-preview/
    PUT EM TO THE SWORD! SHOW SOME STEEL!

    Moejoe: "REMEMBER!!!! SLIP - SLOP - SLAP in the sun. Skin Cancer is a growing problem. It could happen to anyone!!"
    TITANS, DIEHARDS, WARRINGTON WOLVES, MAROONS, KANGAROOS, HONG KONG THUNDER

  11. #71
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    Storm v Titans: Munster back; Gold Coast centres reshuffled
    http://www.NRL.com

    The NRL's newest neighbours will square off, with the Storm welcoming the Titans to their temporary home on the Sunshine Coast.

    What would have been a 1700km trip to the Victoria capital is now a 180km bus trip for a Titans side chasing an upset.

    Gold Coast displayed impressive perseverance to turn a 12-0 deficit into a 16-12 win over the Warriors last weekend while the Storm did what they do best and ground out another victory.

    Storm: Star five-eighth Cameron Munster returns in place of Ryley Jacks. Brandon Smith starts at prop for Jesse Bromwich (knee) and Felise Kaufusi (knee) is back pushing Tino Faasuamaleaui to the bench.

    Chris Lewis and Marion Seve replace Darryn Schonig and Nicho Hynes on the interchange. The Storm have won eight of their past nine games against the Titans.

    Jacks and Schonig were omitted from the extended squad 24 hours prior to kick-off.

    Titans: Brian Kelly (quad) and Phillip Sami (shoulder) return in the centres with Beau Fermor returning to the second row and Bryce Cartwright and Sam Stone out of the side. The Titans are chasing back-to-back wins for the first time since April 2019.

    Nathan Peats and Greg Leleisiuao were cut from the reserves 24 hours before kick-off.

    Match: Storm v Titans
    ROUND 10 - FRIDAY 17TH JULY
    Venue:Sunshine Coast Stadium, Sunshine Coast

    Key match-up
    Anthony Don v Josh Addo-Carr: In a battle of contrasting styles, the leaping ability and power of Don will come up against the blinding speed and elusiveness of Addo-Carr. Don will like his chances at gathering in attacking kicks, while Addo-Carr will be seeking one-on-one opportunities.

    Stat Attack
    Titans utility player Tyrone Peachey was back to his electric best in the win over the Warriors. He ran for 155m and made 33 tackles in his 54 minutes on the field. The Titans will need more of the same against the Storm.
    PUT EM TO THE SWORD! SHOW SOME STEEL!

    Moejoe: "REMEMBER!!!! SLIP - SLOP - SLAP in the sun. Skin Cancer is a growing problem. It could happen to anyone!!"
    TITANS, DIEHARDS, WARRINGTON WOLVES, MAROONS, KANGAROOS, HONG KONG THUNDER

  12. #72
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    Holbrook urging Titans to start fast against Storm
    Gold Coast Titans coach Justin Holbrook has spoken about the need for his side to overcome their slow starts ahead of the Round 10 match against the Melbourne Storm

    Video: https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/07/16/...against-storm/
    PUT EM TO THE SWORD! SHOW SOME STEEL!

    Moejoe: "REMEMBER!!!! SLIP - SLOP - SLAP in the sun. Skin Cancer is a growing problem. It could happen to anyone!!"
    TITANS, DIEHARDS, WARRINGTON WOLVES, MAROONS, KANGAROOS, HONG KONG THUNDER

  13. #73
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    Would a win tonight be our biggest ever upset?

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Bods View Post
    Would a win tonight be our biggest ever upset?
    Do you seriously think we stand a chance?

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by gotitans101_ View Post
    Do you seriously think we stand a chance?
    Not really. A very slim chance. We’d have to start well and Melbourne would have to get flustered. That’s why I’m asking for opinions on if we won tonight if it would be our biggest stunner.


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