Stats back up Titans' chances

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/...-1225915528613

THEY have been the quiet achievers of the competition but given their record against the other seven teams remaining in the NRL finals series, Gold Coast Titans are about to make themselves heard.

There's a well-held belief that statistics don't play for a team and every new game is a blank page waiting for some information.

But the counter argument is that the players who rack up the statistics do play, and when the finals roll around they're itching to prove that earlier victories were no fluke.

If everyone played each other twice during the home-and-away season, each team in the eight would have played 14 matches against the other seven. But teams don't meet everyone twice, so here's the breakdown of how they fared.

The Titans, as it turned out, drew the short straw. They finished up playing 13 of the possible 14 games against other members of the top eight. The only side they met once was Penrith and they dispatched the visitors 38-24.

It was one of nine impressive wins against top-eight opposition. They scored 281 points and conceded 236.

A few weeks ago I said they looked like a team building to something, and if they can keep their key men on the field, then they enter this finals series rightfully fearing no one.

Of the other contenders, the Tigers and the Raiders both had to cope with 12 games against top-eight rivals, while St George-Illawarra, the Roosters and Manly each had 11, and Penrith and the Warriors 10.

The Dragons surprisingly weren't overly dominant. They won six, lost five, scored 208 points and conceded 165.

Second-placed Penrith's 10 games yielded six wins, four losses, points for 254 and 205 against.

Team three, the Tigers, played 12, won six, lost six, scored plenty (293) but let in plenty (265).

The fifth-placed Warriors' 10 games produced two wins and eight losses. Not impressive against the top sides by any means, and look at these numbers - scored 146, conceded 244.

At sixth, the Roosters' all-season rhythm of win one, lose one, shows up even here - 11 games, six wins, five losses, for 230 and against 206.

Teams seven and eight are on the platform, but the hangman hasn't pulled the lever yet. The Raiders might escape, but I don't like Manly's chances.

The Raiders' 12 games saw a six wins, six losses split, but the 227 for and 287 against throws up a huge points difference.

With injuries and suspensions biting into Manly's ranks, their experience on Kogarah Oval on Sunday could be painful physically and mentally. In 11 games, it was four wins and seven losses, points for 221 and against 252.

Looking at the weekend's games, Friday night's match on the Gold Coast should be a great contest. The Titans have downed the Warriors twice this year but the Warriors' form is on the up at the right time.

Dummy-half Aaron Heremaia and fullback Lance Hohaia loom as danger men for Gold Coast, while Brett Seymour and James Maloney have formed a very efficient partnership in the halves.

However, I think Gold Coast will win, providing Scott Prince is given the required rollback by his forwards.

Saturday's three v six game, Tigers against Roosters, should be the most entertaining of the weekend. Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall versus Mitchell Pearce and Todd Carney is at the core of this result.

The Roosters have won both previous encounters, and I'll tip them to get home.

The two v seven game on Saturday night at Penrith promises plenty of points if the passes stick.

The Raiders have won five on the trot, but no team has managed to string six wins together this year.

I slightly favour the home team, but if Raiders skipper Alan Tongue is fit to play Canberra will be much harder to beat.

Sunday at Kogarah promises to be a tough 80 minutes for what's left of the Manly line-up. Suspensions to prop Jason King and centre Steve Matai (will he never learn?) and injuries have reduced them to cannon fodder.

In football, injuries can kill a team.

If this was a boxing match it would have been postponed until both fighters were fit and ready to go.