The Run Home

[Adelaide Titan]

Its all good, still 2 games and +5 point diff ahead of 5th position

We need to get that to 80, this could be vital for a top 4 finish

[karnage]

Another week another win for our boys.

THE LADDER
We have stayed in the equal lead for another week but still sit 3rd with our inferior points differential. The good news is that the Storm in 4th faltered against the Raiders which leaves us 3 points clear of 4th and 4 points clear of 5th. Our points differential is actually superior to that of the 5th placed Knights who have conceded 34 more points than us this season. A loss against the Radiers this weekend will leave us no worse than 3rd position on the ladder one or 2 points ahead of 4th.

THE RIVALS
The Dragons have an absolute sitter at home to the Roosters and will likely increase their for and against significantly. You could not seriously contemplate tipping the Roosters this week.
The Dogs face a very tricky trip away to Brookvale Oval to face the Sea Eagles fresh off the bye. What a shame it is on a Monday night - that is dead set the match of the round.
One of Melbourne and Newcastle will fail to make any ground on us this week as the Knights travel to Olympic Park for what also should be a good game.
The Cowboys will get their season back on track when they smash the Sharks.

THE TALKING POINTS

FAT REAL ESTATE AGENTS
Tony 'Tunza' Carrol is back for the Horseheads. He was betting with us at the track a few weeks ago and he looked as though he had been in a good paddock (couldn't find a winner either ). I'm sure he will give the legion plenty of ammo in a few weeks time. Yes Tony, your ass does look big in those!

ORIGIN CASUALTIES
Every Rugby League fan looks forward to Origin, but at the same time fears the toll it may take on his/her teams playing roster. I was very interested to hear Rabbs mention during his call of Origin II that all 16 clubs were represented. Some of those 16 clubs have been smashed during this period:
PENRIFF: You would be filthy if you were a Panthers fan. They had 3 players represent in Origin and all 3 have suffered long term injuries. Lewis and Jennings have not been sighted since Origin I and now Petero is out long term with a broken toe. It goes without saying they are their best 3 and their season has nosedived in their absence.
DOGS: 1 player for 1 long term injury to Ben Hannant. Actually, Morris came on for 10 minutes in game II and got through unscathed. Their form may see greater inclusion in the Origin III squad.
SAINTS: Weyman out for 6 weeks with a knee injury incurred in game II.
TITANS: 1 for 1 with Harro out for up to a month.
BRISBANE: Hodges out long term while both Lockyer and Folau failed to back up in different games. Hunt only got through last Sunday's loss with a painkiller.
There is still 1 match to go so the likes of Brisbane, Dogs, Saints, Melbourne and Manly will have a bit to worry about in the next fortnight.

HOT STREAK
We have now strung 4 successive wins together against Manly, St George, Easts and NZ. Throw the 2 byes in there and we have scored 12 points in the last 6 weeks. We are the only team in the comp to have done that but an interesting trend develops when you look at each of the top 4 teams last 6 weeks:
TITANS - 12 points.
SAINTS - 10 points with a loss to the Titans
DOGS - 10 points with a loss to the 5th placed Knights
STORM - 8 points with only a loss to the Dogs prior to Sunday's loss backing up from Origin.
So none of the top 4 have dropped an easy one in the past 6 weeks, thus explaining the little gap they have on the rest.

So for the 1st time in about 6 weeks we can pretty safely say that this Sunday's game against the Raiders is not make or break, we will still be 3rd with a win but we will be all but assured finals footy with a win. Most importantly I think a win will shut up a lot of that 'finals fadeout' talk as it will all but be in the bag.

[amaline]

Good post Karnage! Hopefully Ennis will get called up for Origin 3, with Morris and maybe a few others. Shame they are playing the Warriors that weekend though.

[karnage]

Just had a look at the respective runs home for the Top 5 teams. For the purpose of this analysis I have all teams on 18 points (ie 5th - 9th) as IN the top 8:

1st - SAINTS
9 matches remaining (plus 1 bye in Rd 19)
4 matches against top 8 opponents (Sea Eagles, Storm, Panthers, Broncos)
1 match against top 4 opponents (Storm)

2nd - DOGS
10 matches remaining
3 matches against top 8 opponents (Sea Eagles, Titans, Cowboys)
1 match against top 4 opponents (Titans)

3rd - TITANS
10 matches remaining
4 matches against top 8 opponents (Dogs, Broncos, Cowboys, Sea Eagles)
1 match against top 4 opponents (Dogs)

4th - STORM
9 matches remaining (plus 1 bye in Rd 18)
5 matches against top 8 opponents (Knights, Dragons, Cowboys, Knights, Sea Eagles - the last 4 all in a row!!!)
1 match against top 4 opponents (Dragons)

By the look of that the Storm have the toughest of the runs home, although they do have a week off in there with the bye. Interesting to note that the current top 4 have no mare than 1 game against each other in the run home and if they stay where they are will not meet in week 1 of the finals. There will be very little recent form to go off if they do meet deep in the post season.

If we do no more than win all our games agaisnt bottom 8 opponents we will finish on the 36 points that the Coaster mentioned in another thread.

[karnage]

Good post Karnage! Hopefully Ennis will get called up for Origin 3, with Morris and maybe a few others. Shame they are playing the Warriors that weekend though.

Thanks Am!! Agree 100% re Ennis. I never like to see players get hurt (with the exception of Terry Hill, Geoff Toovey, Mathew Ridge - oh hell half the Manly team from the 90's ) so I will just hope that he picks up a little 1 week suspension if he does play in Origin III.

[Coaster]

Excellent posts mate.

[amaline]

Thanks Am!! Agree 100% re Ennis. I never like to see players get hurt (with the exception of Terry Hill, Geoff Toovey, Mathew Ridge - oh hell half the Manly team from the 90's ) so I will just hope that he picks up a little 1 week suspension if he does play in Origin III.

Even if he doesn't get injured, hopefully he won't be 100 percent two nights later. Apparently it's harder to back up two nights later rather than the next night. He'd be an 80 minute player for NSW so fingers crossed!

[amaline]

I thought i might just add a little to this, if you don't mind

1st - SAINTS
9 matches remaining (plus 1 bye in Rd 19)
4 matches against top 8 opponents (Home Sea Eagles, Home Storm, Away Panthers, Home Broncos)
1 match against top 4 opponents (Storm)
Remaining games - 5 home, 4 away

2nd - DOGS
10 matches remaining
3 matches against top 8 opponents (Away Sea Eagles, Technically Away Titans, Away Cowboys)
1 match against top 4 opponents (Titans)
Remaining games - 5 home games, 5 away games


3rd - TITANS
10 matches remaining
4 matches against top 8 opponents (Technically Home Dogs, Home Broncos, Home Cowboys, Away Sea Eagles)
1 match against top 4 opponents (Dogs)
Remaining games - 6 home, 4 away

4th - STORM
9 matches remaining (plus 1 bye in Rd 18)
5 matches against top 8 opponents (Home Knights, Away Dragons, Home Cowboys, Away Knights, Home Sea Eagles - the last 4 all in a row!!!)
1 match against top 4 opponents (Dragons)
Remaining games - 5 Home, 4 away

Doesn't change it a lot, but might make it a little bit harder on the Bulldogs.

[Adelaide Titan]

having more home games is a massive bonus for the Titans but also that 1 at Suncorp means the Titans only have to travel interstate 3 times. The Storm and Knights will fight it out for 4th spot while Titans, Dogs and Saints will fight for the minor premiership. We have a decent run home, just need to make the most of home games and games against bottom sides

[Steve]

I don't think we've been in a better position to make the finals. We should get stronger when a few injuries come back too.
I was going through the games last week with DIEHARD picking who we want to win and lose.

I'd say this week we need the Warriors to put one over the donkeys.
Roosters need to pull one out of the hat over the Dragons, as unlikely as it is.
Souths and Wests is a non event, but a win for the lower placed Wests would probably be the ideal result to hold back a late season surge.
Storm and knights... I'd take a draw or a knights win.
Sorry cowboys, I'll be cheering for the sharkies to get up!
Eels over Panthers would be the ideal result for the Titans, but sorry, still going to hope for a Panthers win, but I think their season is over without Petero, Lewis and Jennings.
Manly/Bulldogs, I'd take a dogs win in that. I want the largest gap between us and the teams behind possible, which means keeping Manly down another round.

As a Panthers fan as well, I've been making some comparisons between the Titans of 09 and the Panthers of 91 and 03.
The Panthers had champion halfbacks in Greg Alexander and Craig Gower. I think we'd all agree that Scott Prince is a champion halfback.
Simmons/Priddis were great hookers who played a little rep footy but were often kept out by other players. I'd say the form Friend has been in this year, he'd have been a shoe in for origin if not for Cam Smith.
A champion back row. Titans own Carty and MG paired up in the second row locked in by Colin van der Voot, who only missed the kangaroo tour through injury. Skip forward and you've got the hair bears, Puletua and Galuvao in career best form with Sattler locking the scrum. Boof, Mini and Ash probably make up one of the best back rows in the competition this year. Throw in the likes of Bailey, Campbell, Rogers, Walker, Meyers and some young players out the back with speed to burn and plenty of confidence in their own ability and there's really the making of a grand final win.

While I won't be predicting that just yet, we're on track for a finals berth and we have a team that is capable of giving the finals a big shake. And I WANT that top 4 position! Not just because I have a bet on them too, but a home semi... that'll just be amazing. I experienced one on my birthday down in Penrith once, and I want one on the coast.

[karnage]

Well here are my Titans friendly tips for round 17:

Brisbane v Warriors - Bit of a nothing game for us really but I would love to see the horseheads down for another week. If the Warriors lose they really can kiss 2009 goodbye.

Dragons v Roosters - Obviously we want the odds-on wooden spoon favourites to cause the boilover of the year but it's not gonna happen. Is it....??

Melbourne v Knights - I wreckon a Storm win here is what we want. Right now the top 4 have a nice little gap and the last thing we want is the Knights to step up and possibly knock us out of a home final in the first week of the finals.

Cowboys v Sharks - The Sharks could do us a favour but they have absolutely no chance.

Rabbits v Tigers - The Tigers season is over. Hopefully they can knock off the Rabbits and end their season as well.

Canberra v Titans - Goes without saying really.

Eels v Penrith - The Panthers for 2 reasons. Firstly they will make it even harder for Brisbane to work their way back in and secondly, we don't want a spring in the Eels step as they head up our way.

Manly v Dogs - We obviously want the Dogs knocked off the top spot but i still reckon we will be better off if they get the chocolates this weekend as the last thing anybody wants is a resurgent Manly. Add to the fact the Dogs travel to NZ next week minus their origin contingent and then have us the week after they will drop enough points in the next 2 weeks that we can afford to hope they get the win here.

[karnage]

0 for 2 on Friday but they BOTH led at halftime.

[Rage]

0 for 2 on Friday but they BOTH led at halftime.

At least you got 2/3 right for Sat

[Adelaide Titan]

After tonight, the Knights fall further behind us and we still have a game in hand on the Storm but with the bye they get 2 points so we have to win that game! Still looking good!

[amaline]

From what I watched of that Eels - Panthers game (which wasn't a lot), Hayne is going to be a big lose for them.