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$1bn Budget deficit looms
By Colin Brinsden
November 24, 2008 12:04pm
VOTERS are happy with the Rudd Government's first-year performance, but are less relaxed about the prospect of a Budget deficit.
A new report suggests the Budget is facing a $1 billion deficit next financial year as the global financial crisis kills the resources boom.
Independent forecaster Access Economics expects the Budget will remain in surplus in 2008-09, although its estimate of $4.83 billion is more pessimistic than the Government's $5.4 billion.
The difference in opinion is more stark in 2009-10 with Access predicting a $1.16 billion deficit, compared to the Government's projected $3.6 billion surplus.
"We are headed for deficit pretty fast,'' Access Economics economist Chris Richardson said, adding China's economy was slowing.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says the Government has no intention of borrowing to cover its spending initiatives, despite being given the green light last week by the Reserve Bank for a deficit Budget and "prudent'' borrowing.
Mr Rudd, speaking yesterday to reporters in Lima where he is attending a meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders, was firm in his commitment to a Budget surplus.
"I don't believe there is a need for the Government to borrow to invest and spend,'' he said.
The latest Newspoll reveals 56 per cent of those polled would be concerned if the Government took the Budget into deficit.
But Labor still retains their electoral support, holding a two-party preferred lead of 10 per cent over the Coalition.
The Opposition says taking the Budget into deficit may prove addictive, because Labor governments are fixed on deficits.
But Mr Richardson argues the previous Howard government was guilty of being a spending junkie.
``We p....ed the good years up against the wall in the usual ill-disciplined blowout of tax cuts and big spending during the boom,'' he says in the latest Access Budget Monitor.