Finals Week 1: SEA EAGLES vs DRAGONS

[DIEHARD]

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles vs St George-Illawarra Dragons

8:30pm Saturday, Brookvale Oval

MANLY SEA EAGLES: 1. Brett Stewart 2. Michael Robertson 3. Steve Bell 4. Steve Matai 5. David Williams 6. Jamie Lyon 7. Matt Orford (c) 8. Brent Kite 9. Matt Ballin 10. Josh Perry 11. Anthony Watmough 12. Glenn Hall 13. Glenn Stewart

Interchange: 14. Heath L'Estrange 15. Mark Bryant 16. Jason King 17. Steve Menzies; Reserves: 18. Adam Cuthbertson

ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS: 1. Jason Nightingale 2. Wendell Sailor 3. Mark Gasnier (c) 4. Matt Cooper 5. Josh Morris 6. Ben Rogers 7. Ben Hornby 8. Dan Hunt 9. Stuart Webb 10. Jason Ryles 11. Lagi Setu 12. Ben Creagh 13. Dean Young

Interchange: 14. Matt Prior 15. Kirk Reynoldson 16. Beau Scott 17. Ben Ellis; Reserves: 18. Jarrod Saffy 19. Jamie Soward 20. Simon Woolford 21. Rangi Chase

IF there’s an upset in the first week of the semi-finals, it’s a good chance it will be forced by St George Illawarra.

While Manly has continued to build a siege mentality at “fortress Brookvale” in season 2008, dropping just three of their 12 games there, one of them was to the Dragons.

But delve deeper and you’ll discover Nathan Brown’s boys have won seven of the past eight clashes! You can bet he was happy when his side avoided a match-up with the Storm – a side they’ve beaten just once in their past nine games – and that was with the Storm’s 10 Origin players out.

(And back in round 19 the Dragons were whitewashed 26-0 at Olympic Park. Who do you think they’d rather play?)

That makes this second-versus-seventh game intriguing.

The Sea Eagles were a chance at the minor premiership heading into their clash with Penrith last week and looked likely to forge away when they led 18-6 well into the first half.

But their hopes were shot when they bumbled around and allowed the Panthers to claw back to 18-16 shortly after the break.

It was a victory, and they showed flashes of their usual brilliance, but that was about it.

Worryingly they made a bunch of mistakes and missed far too many tackles for coach Des Hasler’s liking just a week out from the finals.

Their squad changes this week include the return of Steve Matai at centre after a week’s suspension; Jamie Lyon has been named to start at five-eighth (pushing Steve Menzies to the bench) while Adam Cuthbertson has been pushed into the no.21 jersey on a five-man bench.

Meanwhile the Dragons say they aren’t concerned about their second shut-out for the season last week, a 10-0 drubbing at the hands of the Roosters.

Nor should they be: the conditions were dreadful for footy and it was only their persistence with a lateral shift in the greasy conditions, rather than taking the Roosters’ lead and running straight lines, that saw them wilt.

They really missed fullback Jason Nightingale last week, but he returns in the no.1 jersey here and his scheming will be welcomed.

Ben Rogers, who took some poor options and kicked badly against the Roosters, retains the no.6 jersey – although don’t be surprised if Jamie Soward starts.

Ben Creagh, who suffered a bad concussion last week, has been named to start.

Here’s a stat for you: the last time the Sea Eagles were held scoreless was at the hands of the Dragons in the 2006 semi-finals.

Watch out Sea Eagles: With every game looming as potentially his last in the NRL, expect Mark Gasnier to go hunting at every opportunity.

Gasnier is a true impact player – strong and powerful, he’s broken tackles 91 times so far and is an ever-present danger out of dummy-half as well as scouting wide.

He’s a master at utilising a short right-side blind; his opposite defender knows he’s going to shimmy around their left before sucking in the outside defender and offloading but nonetheless he still manages to get it done almost every time.

It’s a signature play the NRL will sorely miss.

Watch out Dragons: The Sea Eagles’ right-side attack is among the most potent in the comp.

So far Manly have scored 80 of their 118 tries from the centre of the field out to the right wing.

And 44 of those have been scored closer to the sideline.

That’s a definite worry for the Dragons whose left-side defence has conceded 45 of 66 tries from the centre to their left edge – with 28 on that flank compared to 21 on the other side.

Where it will be won: The match-ups.

Around the park these sides have foils for each other.

The battle for territory between props Brent Kite and Jason Ryles – ranked fifth and fourth in the NRL respectively for running metres – will alone be worth the price of admission.

Kite is averaging 125 metres and 23 tackles a game with 20 offloads in total; Ryles is making 138 metres and 27 tackles a game with 30 offloads.

Also second-rowers Anthony Watmough up against Ben Creagh – both different styles of player but both capable of tremendous impact on the fringes.

Then there are the centres Steve Matai and Steve Bell (19 line breaks – second in the NRL).

And the battle between the wily old Wendell Sailor up against Rookie of the Year nominee David Williams (12 tries in his debut season) should have its moments.

Last, the fullbacks Brett Stewart (19 tries – NRL’s top tryscorer) and Jason Nightingale will almost certainly contribute to the outcome of the contest.

Stewart is an out-and-out match-winner – especially at Brookvale where he rarely plays a game without scoring. Nightingale is the Dragons’ most improved in 2008, running for an average of 116 metres with 23 offloads.

He’ll be especially elusive out of dummy-half.

The History: Played 12; Dragons 9, Sea Eagles 3.

Ominously the red-and-whites have won seven of the past eight games – including a 20-18 thriller at Brookvale in round 11.

They also hold a 4-2 advantage at the ground.

Conclusion: There’s so much to savour about this clash – but also a lot that could go horribly wrong for both sides.

Manly have gone off the boil recently and are starting to miss an alarming number of tackles – last week their defensive “rock” Glenn Stewart missed eight, as did Anthony Watmough.

Even Steve Menzies missed three. Sure, Glenn Stewart makes a lot of tackles – 666 so far at an average of just on 29 – but he’s missing 3.6 a game. Watmough is missing 3.8 a game.

And in the centres Steve Matai, while a big hitter, remains a potential defensive liability – he makes just 61 per cent of tackles (161 made, with 62 misses).

The Dragons have been keen to play Ben Rogers at five-eighth over the past month, even when attacking weapon Soward has been ruled fit.

That was great when they were winning, but against the Sea Eagles they’ll need some of Soward’s kicking magic to help them get points.

The downside there is he’s the defensive chink for the Dragons, and if they ‘hide’ him on the wing he’s be sorely found out by some Matt Orford cross-field kicks.

Also, the Dragons will be desperate to get some creative attack in place after last week’s boring, telegraphed effort.

Speaking of Orford (28 try assists – second in the NRL), it will be interesting to see how he handles the ‘big game’ atmosphere as the newly crowned Dally M medallist; it might just take him to another level – or it could add to the pressure and expectation already heaped on him.

Last, Manly need to be careful not to rely too heavily on a potential home-ground refereeing display – their 179 penalties conceded is the second most in the comp.

Meanwhile the Dragons, traditionally bad boys, are middle of the pack this year with just 150.

This could go either way, but we see a bit of fraying occurring over on the northern beaches, so we’ll punt on a Dragons’ upset.

Match officials: Referee – Shayne Hayne; Sideline Officials – Matt Cecchin & Steve Carrall; Video refs – Paul Simpkins & Chris Ward.

Televised: Channel Nine – Live 8.30pm; Fox Sports 2 – Delayed 11.20am Sunday.

* Statistics: NRL Stats.

Source: http://www.nrl.com

[Paul]

Dragone will edge this in a close game. The Morris boys will star for st george

[goldcoastitans]

umm i think this one is going to be a big scoring game by the Manly boys

[Boofhead]

Two teams I hate the most going head to head... Don't really care who wins.

As long as there is lots of injuries.

[DIEHARD]

Sea Eagles v Dragons Preview
Brookvale Oval Saturday 8.30pm

IF there’s an upset in the first week of the semi-finals, it’s a good chance it will be forced by St George Illawarra.

While Manly has continued to build a siege mentality at “fortress Brookvale” in season 2008, dropping just three of their 12 games there, one of them was to the Dragons.

But delve deeper and you’ll discover Nathan Brown’s boys have won seven of the past eight clashes! You can bet he was happy when his side avoided a match-up with the Storm – a side they’ve beaten just once in their past nine games – and that was with the Storm’s 10 Origin players out.

(And back in round 19 the Dragons were whitewashed 26-0 at Olympic Park. Who do you think they’d rather play?)

That makes this second-versus-seventh game intriguing.

The Sea Eagles were a chance at the minor premiership heading into their clash with Penrith last week and looked likely to forge away when they led 18-6 well into the first half.

But their hopes were shot when they bumbled around and allowed the Panthers to claw back to 18-16 shortly after the break.

It was a victory, and they showed flashes of their usual brilliance, but that was about it.

Worryingly they made a bunch of mistakes and missed far too many tackles for coach Des Hasler’s liking just a week out from the finals.

Their squad changes this week include the return of Steve Matai at centre after a week’s suspension; Jamie Lyon has been named to start at five-eighth (pushing Steve Menzies to the bench) while Adam Cuthbertson has been pushed into the no.21 jersey on a five-man bench.

Meanwhile the Dragons say they aren’t concerned about their second shut-out for the season last week, a 10-0 drubbing at the hands of the Roosters.

Nor should they be: the conditions were dreadful for footy and it was only their persistence with a lateral shift in the greasy conditions, rather than taking the Roosters’ lead and running straight lines, that saw them wilt.

They really missed fullback Jason Nightingale last week, but he returns in the no.1 jersey here and his scheming will be welcomed.

Ben Rogers, who took some poor options and kicked badly against the Roosters, retains the no.6 jersey – although don’t be surprised if Jamie Soward starts.

Ben Creagh, who suffered a bad concussion last week, has been named to start.

Here’s a stat for you: the last time the Sea Eagles were held scoreless was at the hands of the Dragons in the 2006 semi-finals.

Watch out Sea Eagles: With every game looming as potentially his last in the NRL, expect Mark Gasnier to go hunting at every opportunity.

Gasnier is a true impact player – strong and powerful, he’s broken tackles 91 times so far and is an ever-present danger out of dummy-half as well as scouting wide.

He’s a master at utilising a short right-side blind; his opposite defender knows he’s going to shimmy around their left before sucking in the outside defender and offloading but nonetheless he still manages to get it done almost every time.

It’s a signature play the NRL will sorely miss.

Watch out Dragons: The Sea Eagles’ right-side attack is among the most potent in the comp.

So far Manly have scored 80 of their 118 tries from the centre of the field out to the right wing.

And 44 of those have been scored closer to the sideline.

That’s a definite worry for the Dragons whose left-side defence has conceded 45 of 66 tries from the centre to their left edge – with 28 on that flank compared to 21 on the other side.

Where it will be won: The match-ups.

Around the park these sides have foils for each other.

The battle for territory between props Brent Kite and Jason Ryles – ranked fifth and fourth in the NRL respectively for running metres – will alone be worth the price of admission.

Kite is averaging 125 metres and 23 tackles a game with 20 offloads in total; Ryles is making 138 metres and 27 tackles a game with 30 offloads.

Also second-rowers Anthony Watmough up against Ben Creagh – both different styles of player but both capable of tremendous impact on the fringes.

Then there are the centres Steve Matai and Steve Bell (19 line breaks – second in the NRL).

And the battle between the wily old Wendell Sailor up against Rookie of the Year nominee David Williams (12 tries in his debut season) should have its moments.

Last, the fullbacks Brett Stewart (19 tries – NRL’s top tryscorer) and Jason Nightingale will almost certainly contribute to the outcome of the contest.

Stewart is an out-and-out match-winner – especially at Brookvale where he rarely plays a game without scoring. Nightingale is the Dragons’ most improved in 2008, running for an average of 116 metres with 23 offloads.

He’ll be especially elusive out of dummy-half.

The History: Played 12; Dragons 9, Sea Eagles 3.

Ominously the red-and-whites have won seven of the past eight games – including a 20-18 thriller at Brookvale in round 11.

They also hold a 4-2 advantage at the ground.

Conclusion: There’s so much to savour about this clash – but also a lot that could go horribly wrong for both sides.

Manly have gone off the boil recently and are starting to miss an alarming number of tackles – last week their defensive “rock” Glenn Stewart missed eight, as did Anthony Watmough.

Even Steve Menzies missed three. Sure, Glenn Stewart makes a lot of tackles – 666 so far at an average of just on 29 – but he’s missing 3.6 a game. Watmough is missing 3.8 a game.

And in the centres Steve Matai, while a big hitter, remains a potential defensive liability – he makes just 61 per cent of tackles (161 made, with 62 misses).

The Dragons have been keen to play Ben Rogers at five-eighth over the past month, even when attacking weapon Soward has been ruled fit.

That was great when they were winning, but against the Sea Eagles they’ll need some of Soward’s kicking magic to help them get points.

The downside there is he’s the defensive chink for the Dragons, and if they ‘hide’ him on the wing he’s be sorely found out by some Matt Orford cross-field kicks.

Also, the Dragons will be desperate to get some creative attack in place after last week’s boring, telegraphed effort.

Speaking of Orford (28 try assists – second in the NRL), it will be interesting to see how he handles the ‘big game’ atmosphere as the newly crowned Dally M medallist; it might just take him to another level – or it could add to the pressure and expectation already heaped on him.

Last, Manly need to be careful not to rely too heavily on a potential home-ground refereeing display – their 179 penalties conceded is the second most in the comp.

Meanwhile the Dragons, traditionally bad boys, are middle of the pack this year with just 150.

This could go either way, but we see a bit of fraying occurring over on the northern beaches, so we’ll punt on a Dragons’ upset.

Match officials: Referee – Shayne Hayne; Sideline Officials – Matt Cecchin & Steve Carrall; Video refs – Paul Simpkins & Chris Ward.

Televised: Channel Nine – Live 8.30pm; Fox Sports 2 – Delayed 11.20am Sunday.

* Statistics: NRL Stats.

Source: http://www.nrl.com

[Hoppy2007Dragons]

Dragons by 2-6. Should be a close one and i am really pumped for this game. I have a manly friend coming over for drinks so losing is not an option.

[curly_11]

i think the dragons might steal this. They have been coming back in form over the last few rounds now and can attack from anywhere on the park plus manly havent been at their best!

Should be close!

[TITAN PETE]

umm i think this one is going to be a big scoring game by the Manly boys

I like your crystal ball & hope you make the same prediction in a fortnights time

EAGLES 38-6

It was good to see Gaz get emotional as he'll be missed unlike his front row team mate

[Supergoose]

How bad were the Dragons. Bennett has massive problems to mold this team into a consistent performing unit. There is plenty of dead wood in this line-up and they are losing some of their best players. It'll be interesting to see how they shape up next season but I don't reckon they'll make the 8.

[Steel Dragon]

I like your crystal ball & hope you make the same prediction in a fortnights time

EAGLES 38-6

It was good to see Gaz get emotional as he'll be missed unlike his front row team mate

Not to Dragons fans. The front row team-mate has actually done something this year for the team. He has busted his gut week in, week out, with very little thanks, least of all the refs who have targetted him for a number of seasons. I note channel 9 didn't even bother to mention Rylesy on Saturday night.

Le Gaz, on the other hand, has done didley squat. You could count the number of games he played well on one hand if you lost fingers in an industrial accident. And one of those games was the first Origin. The fact he had his bags packed and was doing rah-rah training in the lead up to the Manly game says it all. Good bye, and good riddance.

How bad were the Dragons. Bennett has massive problems to mold this team into a consistent performing unit. There is plenty of dead wood in this line-up and they are losing some of their best players. It'll be interesting to see how they shape up next season but I don't reckon they'll make the 8.

You've got to start somewhere, and getting rid of some of the older heads who carry the baggage of our repeated failures is a good move. I just hope Browny the genius (Rogers instead of Soward? Wtf was he thinking?!) hasn't damaged our young blokes too much for Bennett to fix. Gaz is the biggest piece of dead wood, for all his ability (too rarely demonstrated). Ryles is a pity, because he is one of the best props in the comp, and I'm sure Bennett would have been able to coach the dumb plays out of him. I do take your point however, and I think Cooper, Young, and Hornby in particular will be on notice. We have some very exciting talent coming through in their respective positions (Dean Whare, Matt Mundine, and the Kennedy brothers respectively), and we all know Bennett has never been afraid to chuck a young bloke in the deep end to see if he can swim.

Our real weakness is the front row. Poore and Hunt are no Ryles and Bailey, and Michael Weymann is the backup. We also desperately need a good young hooker. Stuart Webb started going alright toward the end of the year, but Browny kept insisting on chucking that nuffy Ben Ellis in there and ruining our go forward. I hope Priddis doesn't prove to be as past it as Wollford has done.

And please Mr Bennett, don't overlook Jamie Soward for some Souths reject (haven't heard of us signing one yet this year, but we nearly always do). Soward is a brilliant creative player with a great kicking game. He also backs his ability, which is a rare trait these days. I personally think Brown crucified Soward for his chip-and-chase play against the Tigers that didn't quite come off (led to the Benji Marshall try that sunk us). We should be encouraging players to have a dig rather than robotically follow a pre-determined game plan (cf. Melbourne, Sharks, Roosters).

The most disappointing thing about next year though is losing Josh Morris and Lagi Setu. Both players will be future superstars, and it will suck watching them do it in evil blue and white and filthy maroon jerseys.


As for Saturday night, in spite of the doing over we copped from the ref in the first half, one team turned up ready to play, and the other didn't. We had all the ball in the first 20 and couldn't convert it to points. We didn't deserve to win after that.

I really hope the Warriors put the cleaners through the Feather Dusters on Friday (which I'm almost certain will be the case). Then if they can play against Manly the way they played against Melbourne, the Sea-eagles will become bald eagles.

Go the Warriors! (Yep, I'm jumping on the bandwagon)

Jason

[Hoppy2007Dragons]

Don't forget weve bought Jeremey Smith from the storm, so he adds some punch up front and neville costigan he could lsot in some places. Ive been impressed with Matt Prior as well.

And when bennett get his hand on the soward/head combo, watch out nrl.

[Supergoose]

Matt Prior is crap IMO. Jeremy Smith and Costigan will be good and I reckon Weyman will get way better under Bennett and he could prove a revelation for the Dragons. It is around the halves that the Dragons will struggle unless Soward can fire.

[Steel Dragon]

Soward has fired plenty over the 18 months since we bought him from the Roosters. I don't think anyone will ever know why he wasn't picke for the semi. He will definitely fire next year under Bennett.

Jason