Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
EnergyAustralia Stadium Sunday 2pm
WHILE it won?t be official post-match you can almost safely say the loser here can start thinking about next season.
The Knights have battled hard all season despite injuries and rep duties to crucial players at crucial times but another close loss last weekend to the Sharks sees them in 12th spot on the ladder, three points adrift of the top eight.
The Rabbitohs? string of five straight came to an end at the hands of the Tigers last weekend and considering they are a further two points behind the Knights in 14th spot, this really is do-or-die for them.
This game is of extra significance not just because of their precarious positioning on the ladder but because teams seven and nine, plus teams eight and 10, play against each other this weekend ? meaning two sides are definitely going to move forward.
If either the Knights or Bunnies don?t keep pace, the distance will be too great to run down over the last six weeks.
Newcastle welcome back skipper Danny Buderus from injury, which sees Cameron Ciraldo move to the bench.
Adam MacDougall is also due back which sees Cooper Vuna move back from centre to wing and Akuila Uate back to the bench.
Scott Dureau joins a bench of seven, presumably as cover for the in-doubt Jarrod Mullen.
South Sydney will have to make do without the suspended Issac Luke, which gives George Ndaira a chance in the number nine, while David Kidwell has been added as an 18th man.
Watch out Knights: Souths? centre Jamie Simpson is getting better and better with each game in the NRL.
Now with six games behind him the former cancer sufferer has four tries and as many line breaks, is averaging 89 metres a game, has two line-break assists, a try assist, 21 broken tackles and makes just over 16 tackles.
His pace of the mark is quite explosive and his footwork is elusive, as many have found out in the past six weeks.
He will however need to improve his defence as he is still missing over 22 per cent of his attempted tackles.
Watch out Rabbitohs: Danny Buderus returns for his first match since the disappointment of the Origin series loss desperate to sing a winner?s song.
The former Australian hooker wants nothing more than to end his career in this country with a finals appearance and he is acutely aware a win here is vital.
Expect a busy game from dummy-half, engaging markers and setting up support with clever balls both long and short, inside and out.
Where it will be won: Second-phase football.
The Knights have been one of the leaders when it comes to second-phase play, ranking second only to Manly in offloads, and it will be this aspect of the game that decides the winner here.
While the Knights share responsibility around through the likes of Zeb Taia (22 offloads), Richard Fa?aoso (20), Adam MacDougall (18), Chris Bailey (15), Chris Houston (14) and Cory Paterson (13) the Rabbitohs have two main contributors in John Sutton (35) and Roy Asotasi (22).
This essentially means the Knights should have an easier time of locking the ball up, with just two potential main players to take care of, whereas the Rabbitohs will have to be on their game in almost every tackle.
The team that gets more ball away will likely make more breaks and in turn score more points.
The History: Played 27; Knights 22, Rabbitohs 5.
Newcastle have won six of the past eight against the Bunnies although the last encounter ended in a Rabbitohs? win.
That match was last season at EnergyAustralia Stadium and was just South Sydney?s second win ever at the venue.
The ledger now stands 13-2 to the Knights on home turf.
Conclusion: The Knights have been so valiant in defeat this season.
Of their 10 losses, eight have been by 12 or less points and it?s about time that determination was rewarded with victory.
The loss of Luke for Souths is a big one ? especially with Buderus returning for the Knights ? and it should be enough for the home side to get a win and keep the dream alive.
Match officials: Referee ? Ben Cummins; Sideline Officials ? Jeff Younis & Bernard Sutton; Video ref ? Steve Clark.
Televised: Fox Sports 2 ? Live 2.00pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
Source: http://www.nrl.com