Game 1 NSW v Queensland Preview
ANZ Stadium Wednesday 8.10pm
CAN the Blues earn early bragging rights and stop the Maroons from staying alive for their first three-peat series win since 1987-?89?
Will the NSW selectors? wholesale changes from the victorious Game III side last year prove a masterstroke or a fizzer?
Will the six Melbourne stars in the Maroons? outfit be able to read the plays of their club coach Craig Bellamy in NSW?s moves? Conversely, will Bellamy give up his secrets and let the Blues in on the innermost thoughts of the likes of Billy Slater, Greg Inglis, Israel Folau, Cam Smith, Michael Crocker and Dallas Johnson?
Whatever transpires, Origin I looms as one of the biggest powder-keg games in recent memory.
New coach Bellamy was quick to stamp his presence on the Origin arena, pulling the strings on selections that saw nine changes from the last Blues side of 2007.
Brent Kite and Nathan Hindmarsh have been dumped, making way for debutants Ben Cross and Anthony Laffranchi.
Craig Fitzgibbon has been recalled to the squad after a three-year hiatus, bumping Andrew Ryan off the rep scene.
With effervescent Kurt Gidley unavailable due to a late facial fracture the Broncos? Peter Wallace has been handed the onerous task of marking up against Johnathan Thurston (in place of the incumbent Brett Kimmorley).
Storm flanker Anthony Quinn steps in for Hazem El Masri and Gasnier returns to take the centre spot of Matt King, now in the UK Super League.
Meanwhile the surprise selections for Queensland were Karmichael Hunt at five-eighth in place of injured skipper Darren Lockyer and the recall of PJ Marsh to Origin football after a five-year break.
Israel Folau makes his debut on the wing, while Broncos? prop Ben Hannant laces up on the bench for the first time.
Watch out NSW: Even with Lockyer sidelined, the Queensland backline has been touted as the best to ever wear the maroon jersey.
Individually its components are awesome ? collectively they are beyond compare. Billy Slater has made the most line breaks in the NRL (11), ranks second for tries scored (7) and ranks sixth for tackle breaks (48); Justin Hodges is relentless out of dummy-half (52 runs); Greg Inglis? brilliant juggle and hoick to set up a miraculous try in the Centenary Test emphasised his talent; Israel Folau is unstoppable from close range and will be handed scoring opportunities from cross-field bombs? and then there?s Thurston.
His club side may be struggling defensively but he?s giving them every opportunity in attack. He?ll be licking his lips at playing behind a dominant pack here.
Down the Blues? end of the park it remains to be seen whether Peter Wallace is the answer at no.7.
Origin is 10-20 per cent faster than club footy and he?ll feel rushed and pressured for the full 80 minutes.
Watch out Queensland: He may have missed the 2007 series but Mark Gasnier has quickly shown he remains the Prince of Centres.
The Maroons will need to be wary of his shimmies out of dummy-half, especially close to the line. A fortnight ago against the Eels he made his Origin team-mate Jarryd Hayne look silly with a magnificent step and one-handed offload to a support who scored.
As Hayne commented: ?You have to guess what he?s going to do before he does it.?
Also, Bellamy has obviously gone for a team with a brutal edge: Paul Gallen, Greg Bird, Ben Cross, Brett White and Willie Mason all love the rough stuff, so if they are able to dominate early field position in the ?grunt? stakes, Queensland may find it tough to work back into the game.
Where it will be won: Defence. Only one side has racked up 30 points in the past six Origin games ? Queensland in their 30-6 win in Game II in 2006.
Over the past two series NSW has averaged a lowly 13.1 points per game. If they?re limited to that tally again here, they?ll lose.
Meantime Queensland have averaged 17 points ? and take out their last game and it rises to 19.1. One try the difference is all it takes in Origin; Queensland certainly have a great defensive platform and their backline appears capable of exceeding the 17-point mark with ease.
The History: Played 81 (since 1980); NSW 39, Queensland 40, drawn 2. Queensland has won four of the past five games, although only one of those wins came at ANZ Stadium, where in 12 games since 1999 NSW holds a dominant 12-1 record (with one game drawn).
Conclusion: With Scott Prince playing champagne football each week, the question is whether Karmichael Hunt is the right man for no.6 spot. But don?t think for a moment he?ll play the whole game there ? expect him to drop back to fullback at some stage, with Slater switching to the wing, Folau moving to centre and Inglis shifting outside Thurston. (And they?ll lose nothing!)
A lot has been made of the ?wrestle? that NSW may employ but it should be remembered with so many Storm players in the Maroons? outfit they?ll give as good as they get.
How Tony Archer polices the ruck ? and shuts out the vocal home-town crowd ? could prove vital in the outcome. He doesn?t normally blow many penalties. It?s too tough to call ? but a dominant victory by either side will see them unbackable favourites for the series.
Match officials: Referee ? Tony Archer; Sideline Officials ? Steve Chiddy & Paul Holland; Video ref ? Bill Harrigan & Tim Mander.
Televised: Channel Nine ? Live from 7.30pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
Source: http://www.nrl.com