Week 2 Finals: Sydney Roosters v Canterbury Bulldogs

Sydney Roosters v Canterbury Bulldogs
Allianz StadiumFriday 7.55pm

http://www.nrl.com/

An unexpected hiccup for the minor premiers and a scratchy win for Des's Dogs: that is the equation that led us to a tantalising semi final clash at Allianz Stadium this Friday.

Melbourne brought the game plan to edge out the minor premiers this week, and it leaves Trent Robinson with the unappetising prospect of rushing co-captain Mitchell Pearce back from a hamstring injury for a must-win clash against a side that seems to bring their best in the finals.

They'd have much preferred a week off to rest up and get everything right but they're left with having to do things the hard way. Pearce has been named at halfback and will need to pass a fitness test on his hamstring later in the week. It pushes Jackson Hastings – who was one of his side's best last week – to the bench, and Suaia Matagi to an extended bench. If Pearce is ruled out expect Hastings to start and Matagi to play.

Bulldogs coach Des Hasler is something of a September specialist – sides coached by him have never failed to progress to a grand final appearance after winning in the first week of the finals. It's happened five times so far (with Manly in 2007-8 and 2011, and with Canterbury in 2012 and 2014) for a 2/5 strike rate on the big day.

Hasler has named an unchanged side; Lloyd Perrett was added to an extended bench, presumably as cover for Frank Pritchard, but with Pritchard successful at arguing his case against a dangerous contact charge at the judiciary on Tuesday night expect an unchanged side on Friday night.

Watch out Roosters: As much as we think of the Bulldogs as playing a power game through the middle they actually play a significantly more adventurous style than the Roosters. They run far more from dummy half (14.8 per game, compared to 8.2 for the Roosters who scoot from dummy half less than any other side) and use far more second-man plays (as testified by their 39 decoy runs per game compared to 30 for the Tricolours). Their total shifts (moving the ball laterally more than half the field in one play) and shortsides (any short side movement) make up around 120 more plays this year compared to the Roosters (929-807).

Watch out Bulldogs: The Dogs will need to be careful when the ball goes up in the air because when it comes to tries scored and conceded from kicks the Roosters have it all over them. The Tricolours have scored 29 tries from kicks while conceding just 12 while the Dogs are almost the exact opposite – they've scored just 12 tries from kicks and conceded 28. The fact lanky Roosters winger Daniel Tupou is one of the tallest men in the NRL is no doubt a factor, as is the fact halves James Maloney and Mitch Pearce have two of the most accurate boots in the competition.

Key Match-Up: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck v Brett Morris. Both these men have made a successful transition from wing to fullback in 2015, and have done so with vastly contrasting styles. Perhaps surprisingly it is the Roosters custodian who has emerged as the elite ball-player, with 13 try assists against Morris's three. Bearing in mind Morris missed 10 more games than Tuivasa-Sheck through rep duty and injury, the stats still show the Kiwi as the far more involved ball runner, with 22 runs per game against 12 per Morris. Morris however, as he has shown over a decade spent as one of if not the best wingers on the planet, remains an elite finisher and support player. Despite the disparity in games played he is only just behind in total tries (11-9) and line breaks (14-12) at a better strike rate. He also has more support runs (11 per game against 9.8). No-one, however, could possibly compete with Tuivasa-Sheck's overall figures of 22.3 runs per game (Morris 12.8) and 238.8 metres per game (Morris 145 metres).

The History: Played 166; Roosters 83, Bulldogs 78, Drawn 5. Recent history favours the Roosters, with wins in both previous fixtures this year and in five of the past six meetings.

What Are The Odds: Punters with Sportsbet are keen on the juicy price on offer with the Bulldogs, with 50 per cent more individual bets placed on the Doggies as far as head-to-head is concerned. Roosters 1-12 is the most popular winning margin while Daniel Tupou has been the best backed in the first tryscorer market. Latest odds at Sportsbet.com.au

Match Officials: Matt Cecchin & Ben Cummins; touch judges: Jason Walsh & Nick Beashel; Video Referees: Bernard Sutton & Ben Galea.

Televised: Channel Nine, Live, 7.30pm

The Way We See It: The Roosters will start favourites but no way is this a gimme against a dangerous side that loves this time of year. This is more than a danger game for the minor premiers – this is anyone's game. There's no doubt about the finals intensity we'll see come Friday night but based on what they showed in their 12-match winning run we'll tip the Roosters to hit back – but only just – and secure a spot in the third week of the finals with a four-point win.

Roosters book Broncos showdown

Chris Kennedy Fri 18 Sep, 2015, 9:46pm
By Chris Kennedy*, National Correspondent, NRL.com

The Roosters have shrugged off an indifferent qualifying final loss to Melbourne with a powerful 38-12 win over Canterbury to earn a preliminary final berth against the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium next week.

The win wasn't without controversy as bench prop Kane Evans was awarded a try despite grounding the ball short at a crucial juncture with his side up just 8-4 early in the second half in a decision that seemed to break Canterbury's spirits and open the floodgates for a late Roosters surge.

The Roosters' final 17 confirmed the decision halfback Mitch Pearce had failed to overcome a hamstring injury but it mattered little as his replacement Jackson Hastings had the ball on a string in a sublime 80-minute performance, kicking and passing beautifully to earn repeat sets while setting up two of his side's tries.

Winger Shaun Kenny-Dowall was the most dominant outside back on the field, bagging a hat-trick of tries and crossing the 150-metre mark. Both back-rowers, Boyd Cordner and Aidan Guerra, set the tone in a forward pack that bounced back well from last week's loss.

The Dogs had started the first half powerfully, dominating the Tricolours with their defence and easily winning the mid-field arm-wrestle in the opening minutes.

But they made a habit of letting the Roosters off the hook; a 4th-minute pass from Moses Mbye that went behind Curtis Rona into touch was a major pressure-release and when the Roosters eventually earned their first foray into Dogs' territory a penalty against Frank Pritchard for a leg pull handed James Maloney an easy two points in the ninth minute.

It was a win for the Roosters to earn the first points after absorbing a huge amount of punishment to start the game, and they quickly made it 8-0 when a pinpoint Hastings bomb was batted back into the hands of Kenny-Dowall who streaked away to the right hand corner.

The Dogs continued to make errors in Roosters territory – including in the very next set when Tim Lafai drilled a kick-off into touch to earn an attacking set before he himself dropped it cold shortly after.

The centre made amends just inside the half hour mark, cutting back on the angle onto a Reynolds pass one play after a Sam Kasiano offload to Brett Morris had set the Roosters on the back foot. However Lafai then missed a straightforward conversion to leave the Roosters 8-4 ahead.

A scrappy half of football got worse with errors in three consecutive sets close to half-time, the Roosters eventually out-fumbling the Dogs in a 9-7 first half error count.

The second stanza started in the same vein when Kasiano lost it in the play the ball in the first set after half-time, Sio Siua Taukeiaho spilled it form the next play, then Mbye played the ball backwards after flipping in a tackle.

When Rona dropped a bomb in the 48th minute the Roosters had the best chance of the half but the Dogs were let off the hook through – perhaps unsurprisingly – a Blake Ferguson error. But Rona's fourth error of the game set the Roosters back on the attack.

The pressure finally told in highly controversial fashion.

Evans pushed his way up to the line but was held short. He was finally put to ground and as he landed stuck out the ball carrying arm. The ball was grounded short of the line before he pushed it over onto the chalk; the possible try was strangely sent up as a try and even more strangely upheld by the video referee despite clear evidence the ball was grounded short when Evans was arguably held even before that.

It was a bitter blow for the Dogs but there was no doubt about the Roosters' try in the very next set and again Evans was involved, popping a beautiful late offload to send Tuivasa-Sheck streaking into space, getting around Brett Morris to score and all of a sudden an 8-4 arm-wrestle was 20-4 to the Roosters.

Hull FC-bound back-rower Frank Pritchard arrested the Dogs' slide, showing great hands to reel in a Mbye pass then gallop into space, finding Josh Morris in support to set up yet another NRL try to hooker Damien Cook to make it 20-8.

The Roosters snuffed out any hopes of a comeback shortly after when Kenny-Dowall bagged his second, showing great strength and poise to ground the ball under pressure in the corner to finish off a right-side shift.

It started getting ugly for the Dogs when Cordner burst between Cook and Pritchard next to the posts in the 72nd minute then Kenny-Dowall earned his hat-trick latching onto a Hastings bomb shortly after.

Rona got a consolation try right on the full-time siren to level Nigel Vagana's club-record of 23 tries in a season, but it mattered little as his side bowed out with a 38-12 loss.

Sydney Roosters 38 (Kenny-Dowall 3, Evans, Tuivasa-Sheck, Cordner tries; Maloney 7 goals) defeated Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 12 (Lafai, Cook, Rona tries) at Allianz Stadium. Half-time: Roosters 8-4. Crowd: 35,711.