Round 10: STORM vs TITANS (2020)

[DIEHARD]

STORM vs TITANS

[Mr Bods]

Venue?????

[ozynorts]

Sunshine Coast Stadium Bods.

[Mr Bods]

^^^ thanks. We might have a few fans living up that way.

[Hail Sezer]

What a treat I finally get to watch the boys and my new favourite player (getting in early so I don’t get JB/Fermor’d) Tiiiinnoooo

[shamus]

Back to earth now

[elltee]

I think peats will have to come back for the next three games at-least. Realy tighten up the middle defensively. I like Clarks energy but lacks polish. We will need peats experience against the big 3.

[NZTITAN]

If Hercules Hipgrave is named then Titans by 10 at minimum no question

[Dobes]

We did beat them that time up at Suncorp when they still had the big 3. So I guess not completely impossible, but it will be difficult

[Mr Bods]

Paying $7 for the win. Long odds.

[TitansState]

Tino's starting in the second-row tonight vs Raiders. Been wondering if he can play the full 80 there.

[Hail Sezer]

Are we expecting anyone back from injury this week?

[indoallstars]

Are we expecting anyone back from injury this week?

Hoping Brian Kelly will be back, don't know the extent of his injury but that would be a nice to have so carry can piss off

[Mr Bods]

Copley?????

[T0ken]

Tino looks good for us next year.


For next week hope copley and kelly are back that should shift fermour to SR and spry can keep his wing spot or switch kelly and spry. Just treat it like any other game and play with the same grit and I’ll be happy. Melbourne just never lose to us except for that 1 game lol

[Mr Bods]

If Copley and Kelly are available then team selection will be very interesting.
Got the impression from the match report that Hipgrave is expected to be able to play.
Wouldn’t surprise me if Peats gets the nod at starting Hooker this week too.

[NZFan]

I think with Fogarty stepping up and starting to settle into his role it would make sense to bring Peats back. I haven't been impressed with Clarke at all. He's nuggety but that's about it. A simplified game plan would help Peats.

I'd like to see Spry moved to right centre also. It is his natural side and I think he could form a decent combination with Don during this period. They are both tall players so it would further strengthen that ride side kicking option.

[Titanic]

Is it only me or is Spry carrying a lot of bulk?

[mdrew]

Always has had that body shape mate to be fair


Is it only me or is Spry carrying a lot of bulk?

[Croc]

He looks similar built as Latrell to me.. big winger

[FalconSloth]

I think the biggest positive to our chances of beating the storm is also the biggest negative. Last week the storm were sloppy and a long way from their best, if they continue that into this week it would be great for our chances but the storm always find a way to play amazing following a mediocre game.

[Mr Bods]

Our odds have blown out from $7 to $8
A famous GC win coming up this week.

[Hail Sezer]

I like the lineup. Fermor starting on that left edge. Carty out altogether. Sami getting a start at centre. BK back. Will wait for JB to post it all pretty n nice

[Titslover]

Kelly back at 3 and Sami at 4. Fermor and Hipgrave 2nd rows, Stone out of the 17 and Cartwright out of the 21 altogether, I'm assuming dropped for that offload. Not sure how Sami will do at centre but other than that really like the side.

[TitansState]

Spry at centre with Sami on the wing could've worked too

[JunctionBlock]

I like the lineup. Fermor starting on that left edge. Carty out altogether. Sami getting a start at centre. BK back. Will wait for JB to post it all pretty n nice

https://i.imgur.com/O7q3kAI.jpg

[willhelm]

Don’t understand the Sami/Spry positioning. Spry plays right centre in QCup so why not just play him there instead of playing both him and Sami out of position?

Would’ve liked to have seen Peats in for Clark too. Not very impressed with Clark so far. He has heart but no head.

[JunctionBlock]

With the exception of Wallace (for obvious reasons) and Spry (due to better injured talent) I don’t think we can field a better team.

Add Rein to that lost too.

[Hail Sezer]

With the amount of defensive responsibility a centre has, and with no ISC to put training systems into practice week in week out, I wouldn’t be throwing a one gamer like Spry at centre just yet. Especially against Melbourne.

[Titslover]

Yeah agreed and he doesn't quite look fit enough to handle defending in the centres yet. HS do you have any idea if Sami has played much centre before, or how you think he'll go there? Feel like his attack will be good but a bit nervous for his defence.

[Mr Bods]

Sami played most of his NYC for us at Centre and sometimes he’d be put back to Fullback if injuries happened.
I always saw him back in those days as a future Centre prospect.

[Hail Sezer]

Yeah agreed and he doesn't quite look fit enough to handle defending in the centres yet. HS do you have any idea if Sami has played much centre before, or how you think he'll go there? Feel like his attack will be good but a bit nervous for his defence.

He played there in MM and NYC, only converted to a full time winger once he was in top grade. Ran a good unders line but is a much different player to back then. Can’t comment on his defence tbh

[gotitans101_]

Munster back lol

[Upthetits]

I thought sami played a game at centre before? Maybe 2? I dont think his defensive reads were very good but that was before the new coaching staff. I honestly hope he kicks on and becomes a really good centre

[Titanic Believer]

Am liking that Holbrook is trying out new combinations. When it comes to next year's recruitment/ditching dead wood it will be invaluable.

[Dooldog76]

I like fermor straight in the back row. So good, hopefully he keeps it when cokey comes back. I am surprised to see Cartwright go, hopefully this fire's a rocket up him to perform or to move on. I still like the look of him in our squad as a utility, but not for what we are paying him. I would have l i ke to see stone in the 17 as well. He played his guts out last week. Also good to see Kelly back.

[JunctionBlock]

I like fermor straight in the back row. So good, hopefully he keeps it when cokey comes back. I am surprised to see Cartwright go, hopefully this fire's a rocket up him to perform or to move on. I still like the look of him in our squad as a utility, but not for what we are paying him. I would have l i ke to see stone in the 17 as well. He played his guts out last week. Also good to see Kelly back.

Stone may still come back pending Hipgraves ability to play this weekend.

[Dooldog76]

Stone may still come back pending Hipgraves ability to play this weekend.

I hope it's not at Hipgrave's expense. He was great for us last week. A pity stone can't play in the front row. I know who he'd be replacing on the bench.

[Upthetits]

How long until proctors back and what will happen with fermor if hipgrave is fit and firing?

Hipgrave to front row and proctor to right side?

[elltee]

Great to see Cookie and Benji getting on the Titans and saying Fifi should sign with us over the gronk's.

[Titanic]

Maybe the secret to Hipgrave is to play busted to keep him focused. Like this team much better ... not as winners but as a stepping stone towards winning.

[JunctionBlock]

How long until proctors back and what will happen with fermor if hipgrave is fit and firing?

Hipgrave to front row and proctor to right side?

Proctor tore his bicep and was supposed to be a couple of weeks. Not sure how the team will look with Proctor available but our bench will look stronger.

[JunctionBlock]

Just thinking that Sami dislocated his shoulder and was suppose to miss 6 weeks. Hope he’s not rushing back. No disrespect to the squad but the next three weeks odds will be against us. If he’s not 99% it may be best to rest.

[Dooldog76]

Gee It would be good to jag even one of the upcoming games against Melbourne, Panthers and roosters. Not likely, but gee it would be good.

[Sami Erect]

Brenko Lee revenge game

[elltee]

Just thinking that Sami dislocated his shoulder and was suppose to miss 6 weeks. Hope he’s not rushing back. No disrespect to the squad but the next three weeks odds will be against us. If he’s not 99% it may be best to rest.

My thinking as-well. Interesting GL in the 21. Could be a game day switch on the cards perhaps.

[Titanic]

I think our coach plays it straight.

[psmitty]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/coach-killers-the-sinners-at-your-club-nrl-gifting-opponents-and-sparking-reactions-like-this/news-story/6aba8c61c8e8941a5e091cc2b19311c2

Our worst offenders this year:


ERRORS

Ash Taylor 14
Bryce Cartwright 11
Anthony Don 10
Tyrone Peachey 9
Erin Clark 7

PENALTIES CONCEDED

Moeaki Fotuaika 3 penalties + 9 set restarts = Total 12
Tyrone Peachey 7 penalties + 2 set restarts = Total 9
Jarrod Wallace 5 penalties + 2 set restarts = Total 7
Bryce Cartwright 5 penalties + 1 set restart = Total 6
Kevin Proctor 1 penalty + 5 set restarts = Total 6
Keegan Hipgrave 2 penalties + 4 set restarts = Total 6

MISSED TACKLES

Ash Taylor 26
Tyrone Peachey 21
Bryce Cartwright 20
Keegan Hipgrave 18
Tanah Boyd 15
Brian Kelly 14

TRY CAUSES

Phillip Sami 11
Tyrone Peachey 7
Brian Kelly 6
Ash Taylor 5
Bryce Cartwright 5
Anthony Don 5

[JunctionBlock]

Cartwright and Peachey on all four lists. Surprising to see the set restarts for Mo and missed tackles for second rowers and replacement hooker.

[gcboyz]

Certainly not unhappy with Mo's numbers. Effectively 12 penalties from nine games playing big minutes.
Taylor's numbers also expected to be high as he touches the ball every attacking set and the little guys get targeted every defensive set.

[willhelm]

Those stats don't tell the whole story as they need to be corrected for exposure, whether that's time on the field or number of touches. For example, looking at just the total number of penalties conceded makes Mo look like our worst offender. However, when you correct for minutes played, he's far better than Wallace. According to NRL.com, Mo has played a total of 463 minutes this season while Wallace has played only 209 minutes. Therefore, Mo is giving away a penalty or set restart every 39 minutes of game time compared to Wallace's 29 minutes. The infringement rate tells more of a story than the total infringement count.

Similarly, Ash has 396 receipts and 14 errors for an error rate of 1 error per 28 receipts. NRL.com doesn't have Fogarty listed for some reason so I can't directly compare, but the others listed above are as follows:
- Cartwright: 111/11 = 1 error per 10 receipts
- Don: 157/10 = 1 error per 16 receipts
- Peachey: 209/9 = 1 error per 23 receipts
- Clark: 311/7 = 1 error per 44 receipts

This doesn't even account for try assists, linebreak assists, forced dropouts, etc. which are higher risk plays and hence more susceptible to errors. At face value, it looks like Clark is a much more disciplined player than anyone else, but then we need to consider that he plays as a hooker who simply distributes from the ruck, whereas Don plays on the wing and is often on the receiving end of high risk plays at the end of sets. The higher error rate therefore makes sense for Don.

What I do take from these stats is that they confirm what we can all see with our own eyes: Cartwright tends to overplay his hand resulting in frequent errors. For direct comparison with another player in the same position, I looked at the stats for Cordner, whom I consider to be the cream of the current crop of second rowers. He has 120 receipts for 4 errors, or 1 error per 30 receipts (I had to get the errors from Fox Sports lab as NRL.com doesn't have them listed for some reason). Cartwright is therefore committing errors at 3x the rate of Cordner. Cartwright is known for his skill, sleight of hand and ability to create something from nothing, but he has 0 try assists, 0 linebreak assists, and only 1 total try involvement. He also has 20 missed tackles, 8 ineffective tackles, 5 try causes, 6 linebreak causes, and 11 defensive errors. Again, compare this with Cordner who has 0 try assists, 0 linebreak assists, 3 total try involvements, 12 missed tackles, 8 ineffective tackles, 2 try causes, 1 linebreak cause, and 4 defensive errors.

I'm glad Holbrook dropped Cartwright this week and I hope he stays dropped.

[Hail Sezer]

Those stats don't tell the whole story as they need to be corrected for exposure, whether that's time on the field or number of touches. For example, looking at just the total number of penalties conceded makes Mo look like our worst offender. However, when you correct for minutes played, he's far better than Wallace. According to NRL.com, Mo has played a total of 463 minutes this season while Wallace has played only 209 minutes. Therefore, Mo is giving away a penalty or set restart every 39 minutes of game time compared to Wallace's 29 minutes. The infringement rate tells more of a story than the total infringement count.

Similarly, Ash has 396 receipts and 14 errors for an error rate of 1 error per 28 receipts. NRL.com doesn't have Fogarty listed for some reason so I can't directly compare, but the others listed above are as follows:
- Cartwright: 111/11 = 1 error per 10 receipts
- Don: 157/10 = 1 error per 15.7 receipts
- Peachey: 209/9 = 1 error per 23 receipts
- Clark: 311/7 = 1 error per 44 receipts

This doesn't even account for try assists, linebreak assists, forced dropouts, etc. which are higher risk plays and hence more susceptible to errors. At face value, it looks like Clark is a much more disciplined player than anyone else, but then we need to consider that he plays as a hooker who simply distributes from the ruck, whereas Don plays on the wing and is often on the receiving end of high risk plays at the end of sets. The higher error rate therefore makes sense for Don.

What I do take from these stats is that they confirm what we can all see with our own eyes: Cartwright tends to overplay his hand resulting in frequent errors. For direct comparison with another player in the same position, I looked at the stats for Cordner, whom I consider to be the cream of the current crop of second rowers. He has 120 receipts for 4 errors, or 1 error per 30 receipts (I had to get the errors from Fox Sports lab as NRL.com doesn't have them listed for some reason). Cartwright is therefore committing errors at 3x the rate of Cordner. Cartwright is known for his skill, sleight of hand and ability to create something from nothing, but he has 0 try assists, 0 linebreak assists, and only 1 total try involvement. He also has 20 missed tackles, 8 ineffective tackles, 5 try causes, 6 linebreak causes, and 11 defensive errors. Again, compare this with Cordner who has 0 try assists, 0 linebreak assists, 3 total try involvements, 12 missed tackles, 8 ineffective tackles, 2 try causes, 1 linebreak cause, and 4 defensive errors.

I'm glad Holbrook dropped Cartwright this week and I hope he stays dropped.

I endorse this post

[indoallstars]

Great post willhelm

[lonegull]

thanks for the post willhelm explains the stats a lot better

[willhelm]

I live to serve

[JunctionBlock]

I live to serve

Great breakdown. Shame we can't reduce Wallace's mistake rates to 0 by reducing his mins to 0 as well.

[willhelm]

Since my last post was a hit and as I have a bit of time on my hands today, I did a bit of a deeper dive on Ash as he cops a lot of criticism, some of which I think is unfair. I've noticed that rugbah leeg fans tend to skew towards pessimism and hone in on the negatives, so hopefully these stats help to make the bigger picture a bit clearer. Namely that Ash is one of the best attacking performers and is far from the worst half overall. Criticism of my scoring methods/analysis is welcome. If mods think this belongs in its own thread, I'm happy to split it out of this match thread.

Method
I looked at 3 key areas: 1) Attack, 2) Defence, 3) Discipline. I didn’t have time to compile stats for all halves currently in the league, so I picked out some of the more prominent halves like Pearce, DCE and Keary as well as some of the younger guys like Flanagan, Clifford and Croft. I also included some players such as Cleary, Walker, Milford and Brooks who should be roughly equivalent to Ash in terms of experience / role in the team.

For Attack, the key stats I looked at were: Try Assists (TA), Try Contributions (TC), Total Try Involvements (TTI), Linebreak Assists (LBA), Forced Dropouts (FDO) and 40/20. An overall Attack Score (AS) was then taken as the sum of each of these key stats. Attack rankings are in order of highest Attack Score to lowest.

For Defence, the key stats I looked at were: Tackles (TK), Missed Tackles (MT), Ineffective Tackles (IT), Tackle Efficiency (TE, %), Try Causes (TC), and Linebreak Causes (LBC). The overall Defence Score (DS) was taken as the negative sum of Try Causes and Linebreak Causes, then adjusted by dividing by the Tackle Efficiency, i.e. a lower Tackle Efficiency results in a more negative Defense Score. For example, a total of 10 Try Causes and Linebreak Causes with a tackle efficiency of 100% results in a Defense Score of -10, whereas the same number of Causes with a tackle efficiency of 75% results in a Defense Score of -13.33 (-10/0.75 = -13.33). Note that the Tackle Efficiency was taken as the proportion of Tackles to all tackle attempts, i.e. TE = TK / (TK + MT + IT). For this purpose, Missed Tackles and Ineffective Tackles were treated as equivalent. Note that defence rankings are in order of highest Defence Score to lowest.

The Overall Score (OS) was then taken as the sum of the Attack and Defence Scores.

For Discipline, I looked at: Minutes Played (MP), Possessions (PO), Handling & Defensive Errors (HDE), Kick Errors (KE), and Penalties (PE). I then took Total Infringements (TI) as the sum of all errors and penalties and the Infringement Rate was calculated as the Total Infringements per 80 minutes, i.e. infringements per equivalent full match. The Error Rate was then calculated as the number of Possessions per Error (P/E) and the involvement rate was calculated as the Possessions per 80 Min (P/80). No overall score was calculated for Discipline but instead these stats were used as general indicators to supplement the Attack/Defence scores. Discipline rankings are in order of most Possessions per Error to least.

All stats were sourced from the Fox Sports Lab.

Results

Apologies for the formatting of the stats. I couldn't figure out how to embed a table. If anyone is interested, you should be able to copy and delimit by space in Excel. If anyone knows how to fix the formatting, let me know and I'll edit the post. The key stats that I ranked the players by in each category are highlighted in bold.

Discipline
MP PO HDE KE PE TI P/80 I/80 P/E
K. Flanagan 725 335 3 0 7 10 36.97 1.10 111.67
N. Cleary 559 473 6 5 1 12 67.69 1.72 43.00
D. Cherry-Evans 710 577 10 4 3 17 65.01 1.92 41.21
M. Pearce 645 558 13 5 3 21 69.21 2.60 31.00
C. Walker 550 293 8 3 7 18 42.62 2.62 26.64
B. Croft 654 387 10 5 2 17 47.34 2.08 25.80
A. Milford 720 278 9 2 5 16 30.89 1.78 25.27
L. Brooks 560 331 10 4 1 15 47.29 2.14 23.64
L. Keary 725 435 15 4 1 20 48.00 2.21 22.89
J. Clifford 560 274 8 5 4 17 39.14 2.43 21.08
A. Taylor 702 401 14 6 4 24 45.70 2.74 20.05

Attack
TA TC TTI LBA FDO 40/20 AS Errors per Attack Score
L. Keary 11 8 23 7 5 0 54 0.35
N. Cleary 5 10 17 4 7 2 45 0.24
M. Pearce 7 4 13 8 4 0 36 0.50
A. Taylor 8 2 11 6 7 1 35 0.57
K. Flanagan 4 5 13 5 4 0 31 0.10
D. Cherry-Evans 4 4 10 8 5 0 31 0.45
C. Walker 7 2 12 5 2 0 28 0.39
J. Clifford 4 1 6 1 8 0 20 0.65
B. Croft 4 4 9 0 2 0 19 0.79
L. Brooks 3 2 7 3 3 0 18 0.78
A. Milford 5 0 6 1 3 0 15 0.73

Defence
TK MT IT TE (%) TC LBC DS
N. Cleary 109 18 12 78 0 0 0
M. Pearce 187 32 8 82 1 2 -4
L. Brooks 148 17 4 88 1 4 -6
L. Keary 130 16 10 83 2 3 -6
J. Clifford 135 20 15 79 3 2 -6
C. Walker 118 12 8 86 3 3 -7
D. Cherry-Evans 137 11 6 89 4 3 -8
A. Taylor 133 26 17 76 5 5 -13
B. Croft 169 15 13 86 6 6 -14
K. Flanagan 219 19 18 86 7 6 -15
A. Milford 81 24 5 74 8 8 -22

Overall
OS
L. Keary 48
N. Cleary 45
M. Pearce 32
D. Cherry-Evans 23
A. Taylor 22
C. Walker 21
K. Flanagan 16
J. Clifford 14
L. Brooks 12
B. Croft 5
A. Milford -7


Discussion
• At first glance, Ash appears to be very poorly disciplined as he scored the lowest Possessions per Error with 20.05. Kyle Flanagan was far and away the best in this category, with a whopping 111.67. The benchmark halves (Cleary, DCE, Pearce, Keary) were generally around 30-45 Possessions per Error, except for Keary who was 22.89.
• In attack, Ash scored very well with an Attack Score of 35, placing him fourth behind Keary (54), Cleary (45), and Pearce (36). Apart from Cleary, Ash was well ahead of his counterparts: Walker (28), Brooks (18), and Milford (15).
• Normalising the Error Rate to the Attack Score better reflects the risk vs. reward of making errors in high risk attacking plays. Ash’s normalised Errors per Attack Score of 0.57 is around the middle of the pack and likely reflects that, while he makes more errors than other halves, his creativity also pays off more frequently. For reference, the most disciplined player, Flanagan, has a normalised Errors per Attack Score of 0.1, demonstrating that his attacking successes come at little discipline cost. The worst offenders in this statistic are Croft (0.79), Brooks (0.78) and Milford (0.73). These high scores demonstrate poor payoff for their attacking risktaking.
• In defence, Ash was towards the bottom of the pack with a Defence Score of -13. The best performer in this category was Cleary with a perfect Defence Score of 0 thanks to his 0 Tries Conceded and Linebreaks Condeded. The other benchmark halves of Pearce, Keary and DCE scored between -4 and -8, so Ash was a fair way off in terms of Defence, but it’s also important to note that he was ahead of Croft (-14), Flanagan (-15) and well ahead of Milford (-22).
• For Overall Score, Luke Keary was the best performer thanks largely to his immense Attack Score. His Defense Score of -6 let him down somewhat compared to Cleary, but he made up for it with his potent attack. Surprisingly, DCE scored quite poorly (23) compared to the other benchmark halves of Keary (48), Cleary (45), and Pearce (32). Ash was only 1 point behind DCE with an Overall Score of 22, ahead of Walker (21) and well ahead of the remaining halves of which none scored higher than 16. Notably poor performers were both Broncos halves with Croft only scoring 5 and Milford scoring a dismal -7.
• The scoring system described above does not account for the intangibles like leadership/organising qualities or effect of the players around the player in question.

Conclusions
Ash’s score of 22 is remarkably good when one considers that his Defence Score is likely significantly affected by the overall team performance. The Titans currently sit second last with 245 points conceded. Only the Cowboys have conceded more points with 253. With upcoming matches against the Storm, Panthers and Roosters, this is unlikely to improve in the short term. Compared to players of equivalent experience / team role (Cleary, Walker, Milford, Brooks), Taylor is second only to Cleary. Milford and Brooks are particularly poor performers, especially given the quality of players around him in Milford’s case. Taylor cops a lot of criticism in the press and from our own fans, but these statistics show that he is actually performing relatively well compared to other halves. If our overall team defence can improve, I expect his Defence and Overall Scores to also improve. I speculate that if Taylor were surrounded by the quality that Cleary is, he would not be far behind.

[Titanic]

Willhelm who Willhelm II ... great dual posts thanks ... a reality check never goes astray when emotion leads logic in a forum like ours.

[JunctionBlock]

Willhelm who Willhelm II ... great dual posts thanks ... a reality check never goes astray when emotion leads logic in a forum like ours.

I just use SuperCoach points to tell me who is doing well.

[mdrew]

Agree, Wilhelm great analysis


Willhelm who Willhelm II ... great dual posts thanks ... a reality check never goes astray when emotion leads logic in a forum like ours.

[willhelm]

Updated previous post to clarify that the Defense Score was adjusted by dividing by the Tackle Efficiency, e.g. a base score of -10 with a Tackle Efficiency of 100% remains at -10, whereas if the Tackle Efficiency is 75%, it reduces to -13.33 (-10/0.75 = -13.33).

[Whats Doing]

Wilhelm. You have far too much time on your hands

[BundyTitan]

Great analysis Willhelm, think Ash has been a lot better this year but it's probably still the inability to deal with high pressure situations that lets him down. It's not through a lack of effort or desire but rather the opposite of trying too hard which forces mistakes in crucial moments. I love Ash but I do doubt that we win that game on Friday v the Warriors if he was still on in those last 10 minutes

[willhelm]

Wilhelm. You have far too much time on your hands

Day off. I do data analysis for a living so it didn’t take me too long.

[Upthetits]

Day off. I do data analysis for a living so it didn’t take me too long.

I was going to say that would take me about 3 weeks to put together haha

[Mexican titan]

Great analysis Willhelm, think Ash has been a lot better this year but it's probably still the inability to deal with high pressure situations that lets him down. It's not through a lack of effort or desire but rather the opposite of trying too hard which forces mistakes in crucial moments. I love Ash but I do doubt that we win that game on Friday v the Warriors if he was still on in those last 10 minutes

I agree with your comments. Ash has been a little better this year but he is a very average nrl standard half. I've seen enough that I don't believe he will ever make it to top level and he doesn't have the ability or heart to sustain a consistent performance. I'm waiting for the day he is cut or plays Qcup as our back up on a substantially reduced wage. No coincidence we went better last week when he went off. We are wasting our time with him and the quicker we move on the better.
You can present stats as much as you want but I find my eyes to be the best judge. I remember a stat a few years ago where a team that came second last had the best completion rate. They completed but did nothing with the ball.

[Numbers]

Since my last post was a hit and as I have a bit of time on my hands today, I did a bit of a deeper dive on Ash as he cops a lot of criticism, some of which I think is unfair. I've noticed that rugbah leeg fans tend to skew towards pessimism and hone in on the negatives, so hopefully these stats help to make the bigger picture a bit clearer. Namely that Ash is one of the best attacking performers and is far from the worst half overall. Criticism of my scoring methods/analysis is welcome. If mods think this belongs in its own thread, I'm happy to split it out of this match thread.

...

For Attack, the key stats I looked at were: Try Assists (TA), Try Contributions (TC), Total Try Involvements (TTI), Linebreak Assists (LBA), Forced Dropouts (FDO) and 40/20. An overall Attack Score (AS) was then taken as the sum of each of these key stats

...

Conclusions
Ash’s score of 22 is remarkably good when one considers that his Defence Score is likely significantly affected by the overall team performance. The Titans currently sit second last with 245 points conceded. Only the Cowboys have conceded more points with 253. With upcoming matches against the Storm, Panthers and Roosters, this is unlikely to improve in the short term. Compared to players of equivalent experience / team role (Cleary, Walker, Milford, Brooks), Taylor is second only to Cleary. Milford and Brooks are particularly poor performers, especially given the quality of players around him in Milford’s case. Taylor cops a lot of criticism in the press and from our own fans, but these statistics show that he is actually performing relatively well compared to other halves. If our overall team defence can improve, I expect his Defence and Overall Scores to also improve. I speculate that if Taylor were surrounded by the quality that Cleary is, he would not be far behind.

G’day Willhelm

Thanks for the detailed and interesting posts.

With your Attack Score though, as:
(1) TTI = TA + TC + tries scored (TS); and
(2) given that for halves (TA + TC) is usually much larger than TS (as your data shows);
(TA + TC) and TTI are very highly correlated and so in effect you have counted the same thing twice. This isn’t necessarily “wrong” - perhaps a TA or TC should be worth twice as much as an LBA, FDO or 40/20 in an attacking metric for a half - but it needs to be understood.

This leads to the more general question of how much weight should any particular stat be given in an overall metric to really capture what you are trying to measure? Check out baseball's "wins above replacement" stat if you haven’t seen it before with regards to the sort of thing that can be done with a decent sized data set.

Thanks again for the posts; the more numbers on the site the better I reckon!

[Sunny86]

The game is now a sell out

[Mr Bods]

Anyone from the forum going ?

[DIEHARD]

STORM v TITANS LeagueUnlimited review
https://leagueunlimited.com/news/34790-storm-v-titans-preview/

[DIEHARD]

Storm v Titans: Munster back; Gold Coast centres reshuffled
http://www.NRL.com

The NRL's newest neighbours will square off, with the Storm welcoming the Titans to their temporary home on the Sunshine Coast.

What would have been a 1700km trip to the Victoria capital is now a 180km bus trip for a Titans side chasing an upset.

Gold Coast displayed impressive perseverance to turn a 12-0 deficit into a 16-12 win over the Warriors last weekend while the Storm did what they do best and ground out another victory.

Storm: Star five-eighth Cameron Munster returns in place of Ryley Jacks. Brandon Smith starts at prop for Jesse Bromwich (knee) and Felise Kaufusi (knee) is back pushing Tino Faasuamaleaui to the bench.

Chris Lewis and Marion Seve replace Darryn Schonig and Nicho Hynes on the interchange. The Storm have won eight of their past nine games against the Titans.

Jacks and Schonig were omitted from the extended squad 24 hours prior to kick-off.

Titans: Brian Kelly (quad) and Phillip Sami (shoulder) return in the centres with Beau Fermor returning to the second row and Bryce Cartwright and Sam Stone out of the side. The Titans are chasing back-to-back wins for the first time since April 2019.

Nathan Peats and Greg Leleisiuao were cut from the reserves 24 hours before kick-off.

Match: Storm v Titans
ROUND 10 - FRIDAY 17TH JULY
Venue:Sunshine Coast Stadium, Sunshine Coast

Key match-up
Anthony Don v Josh Addo-Carr: In a battle of contrasting styles, the leaping ability and power of Don will come up against the blinding speed and elusiveness of Addo-Carr. Don will like his chances at gathering in attacking kicks, while Addo-Carr will be seeking one-on-one opportunities.

Stat Attack
Titans utility player Tyrone Peachey was back to his electric best in the win over the Warriors. He ran for 155m and made 33 tackles in his 54 minutes on the field. The Titans will need more of the same against the Storm.

[DIEHARD]

Holbrook urging Titans to start fast against Storm
Gold Coast Titans coach Justin Holbrook has spoken about the need for his side to overcome their slow starts ahead of the Round 10 match against the Melbourne Storm

Video: https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/07/16/holbrook-urging-titans-to-start-fast-against-storm/

[Mr Bods]

Would a win tonight be our biggest ever upset?

[gotitans101_]

Would a win tonight be our biggest ever upset?

Do you seriously think we stand a chance?

[Mr Bods]

Do you seriously think we stand a chance?

Not really. A very slim chance. We’d have to start well and Melbourne would have to get flustered. That’s why I’m asking for opinions on if we won tonight if it would be our biggest stunner.

[gotitans101_]

I think it would be our biggest upset ever...though I do remember beating Melbourne once down in Melbourne in the Prince/Rogers era. Melbourne are nearly back to full-strength with Munster in the side though, can't see it happening.

[Titanic Believer]

I remember us beating them in a very high scoring game in the past. Too lazy to look up when it was.

[willhelm]

We beat Melbourne in 2017. I remember Koni Hurrell sliding in to catch a bomb and score the winning try. That was our greatest ever upset except for perhaps beating Souths in 2014 before they went on to win the premiership. I remember Kevin Gordon playing that game.

@Numbers cheers mate for the good pickup. I'll update the stats when I get a chance. Not too keen to introduce subjective parameter weighting as it was just a fun little interest project I cooked up in a couple hours, but you make a valid point.

[Mr Bods]

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/gold-coast-titans-upset-melbourne-storm-with-late-penalty-goal-20140406-zqrho.html

Here’s a game where Greg “Hipgrave” Bird kicked a penalty goal on the siren to win a high scoring game.
I remember he gave it to Cronk after the siren.

- - - Updated - - -

I remember a game it was the last one of the season and with a depleted team we beat the Roosters in Sydney.
Dave Taylor scored a try on the siren.
I remember thinking that was a huge boil over at the time.

[gotitans101_]

We beat Melbourne in 2017. I remember Koni Hurrell sliding in to catch a bomb and score the winning try. That was our greatest ever upset except for perhaps beating Souths in 2014 before they went on to win the premiership. I remember Kevin Gordon playing that game.

@Numbers cheers mate for the good pickup. I'll update the stats when I get a chance. Not too keen to introduce subjective parameter weighting as it was just a fun little interest project I cooked up in a couple hours, but you make a valid point.

Haha yeah, I forgot about that one. That was a really fun game.

[Dooldog76]

Let's hope the storm are complacent.

[shamus]

Haha yeah, I forgot about that one. That was a really fun game.

LG put up the kick for Don who padded it back for Koni. Didn’t come any better than that

[Hail Sezer]

Evening boys

[willhelm]

What the hell was Birdgrave doing rushing up there?

[Titslover]

Jeez we started well but errors are just absolutely killing us. Great play from ash before a
to almost set up the try, really poor errors from Kelly and Sami earlier

[TitansState]

Little similar to what happened to fogarty last week lol

[Dooldog76]

Pretty lucky there

[willhelm]

Little similar to what happened to fogarty last week lol

Everyone in the media was acting like the Warriors were hard done by with that call but Hetherington didn’t even ground the ball.

[gotitans101_]

can our forwards please do something?

[Mexican titan]

Everyone in the media was acting like the Warriors were hard done by with that call but Hetherington didn’t even ground the ball.

Yeah we noticed that as well.

Well that try just shows why we need a decent hooker. Dreadful pass straight after scoring, even though Fogarty should have caught it. Then a winger rushes in - a typical Titans period of play.

Errors just killing us.

[gotitans101_]

Hipgrave again

you can't expect Thompson to save that on his own against big Nelson.

[Dooldog76]

Errors......

[Whats Doing]

Hipgrave 2 soft tackles and let’s in 2 tries

[gotitans101_]

**** you Hipgrave

[mdrew]

Simple errors really hurting us

[Dooldog76]

Still looking pretty good. Hope we are not too gassed.

- - - Updated - - -

Taylor is looking sharp

[gotitans101_]

Hipgrave 7 missed tackles. Sitting on 10 points in 40min on SC. Pathetic.

- - - Updated - - -

you know what happens from here.

turned it off

game over

[lonegull]

Pathetic display stupid mistakes and disorganised

[Whats Doing]

Fermor hands are terrible

[gotitans101_]

Fermor hands are terrible

but he's the next big thing, didn't ya hear?

- - - Updated - - -

i lied, I'm still watching.

but fmd, errors errors errors.

[lonegull]

Schoolboy footy control the ball better

[gotitans101_]

what a bludger of a game. We just couldn't keep it together.

[TitanPremiership]

I hate bagging the kid but Tanah has made at least one error a week it is bloody killing me.

[gotitans101_]

I hate bagging the kid but Tanah has made at least one error a week it is bloody killing me.

doesn't help when he's playing out of position.

[lonegull]

Shows how much the game means titans players laughing with the storm players kids against men

[Whats Doing]

Boyd is not a hooker

[TitanPremiership]

In a more positive note Sami has been particularly impressive in defence.

[gotitans101_]

Nice kick Taylor ffs

- - - Updated - - -

Peachey well done

[TitansState]

Drop Peachy for that

[Whats Doing]

Peachey another idiot play. The deliberate penalties this goose gives away is a joke

[NZTITAN]

welp, at least Tino looks great

[gotitans101_]

Can't wait till the likes of Peachey comes off contract.

- - - Updated - - -

Boyd another error.

[lonegull]

Error after error no attack terrible performance

[gotitans101_]

It's true, I think we need both Fifita and Tino to fix this mess.

But a decent hooker first and foremost.

[lonegull]

Training run for the storm bloody disgraceful effort from titans

[Whats Doing]

To be honest we have no go forward and as uch we are getting murdered down the middle. Apart from Mo there is no go forward and we need more than Fifita in our pop gun forward pack

[gotitans101_]

Taylor is ****ing useless

[TitansState]

Big gap between the top teams and us this year. Nearly always a blowout. We have Panthers and Roosters next too. Can't wait.

[Mexican titan]

Error after error no attack terrible performance

Same same every week. Fermor has really come back to the field tonight and as someone said I hate bagging Boyd but he makes clanger mistakes week after week. He has plenty of mates that just shouldn't be repeating the same errors every week.
I would think this is our worst performance of the year, mistake and attack wise,and that's saying something. The defence has saved a smashing.

- - - Updated - - -


Big gap between the top teams and us this year. Nearly always a blowout. We have Panthers and Roosters next too. Can't wait.

I think the gap between the top 10 or so and the next 6 is huge and we are in the bottom 2 or so, well below the 11-14 group.

[gotitans101_]

Same same every week. Fermor has really come back to the field tonight and as someone said I hate bagging Boyd but he makes clanger mistakes week after week. He has plenty of mates that just shouldn't be repeating the same errors every week.
I would think this is our worst performance of the year, mistake and attack wise,and that's saying something. The defence has saved a smashing.

- - - Updated - - -



I think the gap between the top 10 or so and the next 6 is huge and we are in the bottom 2 or so, well below the 11-14 group.

I would love to know what your opinion is of Hipgrave, MT?

[Whats Doing]

Jolliffe just disgraceful in defence on your line

[gotitans101_]

Mo the only bloke trying to tackle big Nelson...says a lot.

[jacksonm]

Spot on ....our bench is offering nothing. Once our starting props go off we struggle. Middle defence could do with Peats, we have too many holes too often

[Mexican titan]

Taylor is ****ing useless

I've said for a few weeks now, that I can't wait for him to go. Personally I would drop him and give Fogarty and Boyd a go in the halves. Taylor just continues to bludge and has a dreadful kicking game.

[gotitans101_]

well we sure lost some fans on the Sunshine Coast tonight.

- - - Updated - - -

Nice pass Hipgrave. Well done.

[lonegull]

Geez our second rowers were strong tonight. NOT

[gotitans101_]

Nah I'm done with Hipgrave. Way too incosistent. Has one or two good games against **** teams and then is nothing more of a liability in most other games. **** him off as far as I'm concerned. He'll never learn.

[Mexican titan]

I would love to know what your opinion is of Hipgrave, MT?

Well, to be honest I was impressed with him last week and I did think he was on the improve. He was getting some credit points back as I couldn't get it out of my mind his double sin binning last year.
Tonight he has been woeful like a few others. I thought after seeing his shoulder injury last week he would miss games and perhaps he should have. However he played so you cop the criticism.
Too many people on here, wrap blokes after one decent run let alone a decent game. The true levels of ability are shown up and not sustained so they should not be at NRL level. Hopefully next year, many will not be.

[lonegull]

What a terrible performance just goes to show how far the top sides are ahead of the rest the titans

[jacksonm]

A couple of errors but Ferm in the 2nd row has done a lot of defence and next to Taylor. The team disorganised tonite Especially left side. Can’t think of too many times we have had the ball to our wingers in general play, so we played a very narrow attack.
I expect Holbrook might make a couple of changes which will show no one is safe.

[BundyTitan]

Really disgusting loss that one. To be flogged by them is one thing, but we were in that game if we didn't make 13 errors. That sort of completion rate is not acceptable in the NRL. Think Holbrook needs to spend this week teaching them how to catch

[gotitans101_]

Well, to be honest I was impressed with him last week and I did think he was on the improve. He was getting some credit points back as I couldn't get it out of my mind his double sin binning last year.
Tonight he has been woeful like a few others. I thought after seeing his shoulder injury last week he would miss games and perhaps he should have. However he played so you cop the criticism.
Too many people on here, wrap blokes after one decent run let alone a decent game. The true levels of ability are shown up and not sustained so they should not be at NRL level. Hopefully next year, many will not be.

Cheers MT.

[BundyTitan]

Posted in the signings thread but will post here again. Hipgrave tonight...

80 minutes.
2 runs.
16 metres.
12 missed tackles.
2 errors.

Absolutely dreadful but he's not alone. Can't think of one player who can really hold their head high tonight, would be shocked if all 17 didn't have at least one error each

Thank god for Tino at least, he's a machine

[Dooldog76]

I thought we had plenty of effort tonight. We ended up getting gassed through defending all the stupid errors. It's a shame because Melbourne made just as many errors as us. We couldn't capitalise and we were run over by the melbourne forward pack. I thought Taylor looked good tonight and we all know you need the forwards to go forward to let the halves play off it. A bit hard when you are getting spanked in the forwards. It was always going to be a big task. Always next week.

[mdrew]

I am a Hipgrave supporter but I agree he did not have his best match tonight, but I will bet on him bouncing back in the coming weeks.

[Hail Sezer]

Hipgrave missed 12 tackles and ran for 16 metres.

Passion and enthusiasm are admirable traits but I continue to question whether he is an NRL quality footballer.

Some other shockers tonight too. Poor all round.

Tino the shining light

[gotitans101_]

Posted in the signings thread but will post here again. Hipgrave tonight...

80 minutes.
2 runs.
16 metres.
12 missed tackles.
2 errors.

Absolutely dreadful but he's not alone. Can't think of one player who can really hold their head high tonight, would be shocked if all 17 didn't have at least one error each

Thank god for Tino at least, he's a machine

Might as well have stuck Carty out there.

[ozynorts]

If anyone thought we were a chance tonight you were dreaming. We are miles away from the top teams. I was hoping to see Consistent effort and determination not to be humiliated but unfortunately we gifted the Storm the win.
Hipgrave was obviously playing hurt and Fermor was shown up badly in defence. Peachey was meh, Tanah again made errors and overall we were poor.
Sami was solid defensively and could be a good option going forward.
Mo, as usual was enormous.
I hope Fogarty’s injury isn’t serious, he needs to be given control of the team, Ash needs to shut up and play his role as a Second receiver.

[Bayside Titan]

Pretty angry with that performance. Too many errors. Looked like we lost interest with 5 to go. Pushed too many passes. Also tired of watching our wingers rush up in D on our line and the opposition scores. Don did it once last week and did it again this week. Kelly and Peachey were really poor. I wonder with Hipgrave that he got a head knock which effected him ? He was really off his game tonight?? But errors with dropped ball is really unacceptable at this level. Boyd crowds the play the ball and needs to give room so that he doesn’t rush. He has done it the past few weeks.

[Hail Sezer]

Everyone put on the tigers broncos game to redeem your evening

[ozynorts]

Everyone put on the tigers broncos game to redeem your evening

This could be a massacre. Teo was just embarrassing in defence.

[JunctionBlock]

Watched it my parents house. Mum realised washing my mouth out with soap as a kid did little to curb my swearing.

At the end of the day we knew we wouldn’t be able to compete with the big boys this year. We showed we could for 32 odd mins.

Nothing much to like about the game and the next couple of weeks will determine a lot about the commitment of the team to show some pride.

Honourable mention to Anasta for being a dead set ****wit of a commentator.

[Re-engage19]

Everyone put on the tigers broncos game to redeem your evening

I feel better already, hope they go on with it��

[gotitans101_]

Watched it my parents house. Mum realised washing my mouth out with soap as a kid did little to curb my swearing.

At the end of the day we knew we wouldn’t be able to compete with the big boys this year. We showed we could for 32 odd mins.

Nothing much to like about the game and the next couple of weeks will determine a lot about the commitment of the team to show some pride.

Honourable mention to Anasta for being a dead set ****wit of a commentator.

Anasta didn't commentate our game.

[Dooldog76]

Watched it my parents house. Mum realised washing my mouth out with soap as a kid did little to curb my swearing.

At the end of the day we knew we wouldn’t be able to compete with the big boys this year. We showed we could for 32 odd mins.

Nothing much to like about the game and the next couple of weeks will determine a lot about the commitment of the team to show some pride.

Honourable mention to Anasta for being a dead set ****wit of a commentator.

I thought it was Ennis tonight.

[Whats Doing]

We got murdered in the forwards. Melb 1735 metres to Titans 971. Our forwards were powder puff and were like boys against men

[Dooldog76]

Everyone put on the tigers broncos game to redeem your evening

Is anyone watching this on fox? So awkward and funny. Awkward because Walters is calling his son play which is dodgy as from foxtel. Funny because kevvy wants the Broncos coaching position and he can barely keep the excitement out of his voice. Gold.

[Whats Doing]

It was Ennis who was so far up Storms **** it was a joke

[Dooldog76]

It was Ennis who was so far up Storms **** it was a joke

Totally, at least he can talk I suppose, unlike anasta.

[Whats Doing]

The Titans need to have a good look at the intensity and commitment of the Tigers. This is what the Titans need to learn for 80 minutes if they want to be. top 8 side. I am enjoying seeing the Broncos being destroyed

[willhelm]

This Broncos game is making me feel much better

[Dooldog76]

On the bright side, we beat both these sides.

[ozynorts]

Ah love seeing the “glamor” club getting embarrassed. Hey Fifita, here is the team you are willing to sacrifice your families future on, showing just how good they are.

- - - Updated - - -

[Mexican titan]

This Broncos game is making me feel much better

Much better.
Anyone who hasn't seen the Broncos short goal line dropout and what became of it should try and watch it. Outrageously funny. Moment of the season for me.

[willhelm]

Much better.
Anyone who hasn't seen the Broncos short goal line dropout and what became of it should try and watch it. Outrageously funny. Moment of the season for me.

Yep I was laughing my ass off

[Titanic Believer]

You're all masochists watching our games. A quick look at the score from time to time lets me know all I need to know after so many years of the same old stuff.

- - - Updated - - -

The question that needs to be asked is whether getting two young players like Timo and Fifita would fix the basics missing in our team or will we just be another Broncos. Talented but missing leadership and motivation.

[Nols of the Goldy]

The Broncos being destroyed is making me feel much better. The news gets even better though as the Donkeys play the Storm next week :laugh:

[Mr Bods]

‪I saw both the Melbourne players and coaching box laughing at us tonight. That will stay with me for a very long time. It’s upsetting as someone that loves the club. It should upset our players and coaching staff too. ‬

[gotitans101_]

‪I saw both the Melbourne players and coaching box laughing at us tonight. That will stay with me for a very long time. It’s upsetting as someone that loves the club. It should upset our players and coaching staff too. ‬

Yeah I saw Ryley Jacks having a laugh up there.

[mdrew]

My only focus is the Titans, full stop. Sorry all

[willhelm]

‪I saw both the Melbourne players and coaching box laughing at us tonight. That will stay with me for a very long time. It’s upsetting as someone that loves the club. It should upset our players and coaching staff too. ‬

How do you know that the laughing was directed at us? Maybe Bellyache let one rip.

[TITAN PETE]

Best part of tonight’s game was knowing the Donkeys were on right after us

48-0

[gotitans101_]

My only focus is the Titans, full stop. Sorry all

same, Broncos getting flogged is nice and all but I'm much more worried about our team tbh.

[Hail Sezer]

same, Broncos getting flogged is nice and all but I'm much more worried about our team tbh.

I think we all are

Doesn’t make the broncos loss less enjoyable

[Bayside Titan]

My only focus is the Titans, full stop. Sorry all

Yep same mate.

[Mr Bods]

I want to revel in the Drongoes misery but I can’t because our blokes have to spoil it by being utter rubbish tonight too

[Titanic]

Due to work stuff I won't see the game until later tonight. I know i'm going to have to steel myself for the inevitable nightmares and have left instructions for all sharp objects to be hidden but WTF that's what being a Titans supporter means.

[DIEHARD]

That was frustrating to watch. But I stuck in there. Much more competitive in the first half. Most of our players not NRL standard tonight.

[DIEHARD]

Post match press conference
https://www.titans.com.au/news/2020/07/17/post-match-press-conference/

[DIEHARD]

STORM v TITANS highlights
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xD9vrjYGu0Q" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Bayside Titan]

A few points for me is that as soon as NAS and Tino came on it was a complete moment and energy swing to the Storm. Having those two big mobile bodies hurt is big time. NAS and Tino only did what they would normally do and and line up and run at the smallest players and close to the line any small player is cannon fodder. This point shows what we lack and what we need to improve on which will be next year when Tino gets here.

The other point is I feel that we need a large outside back or strike back.

[willhelm]

A few points for me is that as soon as NAS and Tino came on it was a complete moment and energy swing to the Storm. Having those two big mobile bodies hurt is big time. NAS and Tino only did what they would normally do and and line up and run at the smallest players and close to the line any small player is cannon fodder. This point shows what we lack and what we need to improve on which will be next year when Tino gets here.

The other point is I feel that we need a large outside back or strike back.

Yep 100% correct. Smith just tore us apart with those short balls at the line.

I wanted Oates for that big body winger but looks like his career may be over with that compound fracture he picked up last night...

[Hail Sezer]

Pretty angry with that performance. Too many errors. Looked like we lost interest with 5 to go. Pushed too many passes. Also tired of watching our wingers rush up in D on our line and the opposition scores. Don did it once last week and did it again this week. Kelly and Peachey were really poor. I wonder with Hipgrave that he got a head knock which effected him ? He was really off his game tonight?? But errors with dropped ball is really unacceptable at this level. Boyd crowds the play the ball and needs to give room so that he doesn’t rush. He has done it the past few weeks.

Don rushing in was actually the correct thing to to in the defensive system - he’s just reacting to what the centre is doing. That instance was terrible defensive cohesion from Sami & co inside him.

All in all we got smashed by a really good football team and taught a lesson on how far away we are. Next week against Penrith could be a tough watch with Kikau opposite Hipgrave. Can’t believe I’m saying this but is Proctor any chance of returning?

[Numbers]

It’s not unusual to hear NFL commentators use the phrase “short field” when referencing the situation where a team turns over the ball giving good field position to their opponents - emphasising the fact that the team with the ball now only has to make short yardage to register points.

While I didn’t think we were much of a chance of causing the upset last night, we gave the Storm way too many short fields to have any chance of being competitive. Of the Storm’s seven tries, the first five were all from short fields:
- Kelly lost ball 21m out;
- Fogarty dropped pass 19m out;
- Fermor lost ball 43m out;
- Fermor stripped 45m out; and
- Boyd lost ball 49m out.
The first three were scored on the set after the turnover, the last two had one repeat set (didn’t clean up a kick on last, conceded a penalty).

[Mr Bods]

It’s not unusual to hear NFL commentators use the phrase “short field” when referencing the situation where a team turns over the ball giving good field position to their opponents - emphasising the fact that the team with the ball now only has to make short yardage to register points.

While I didn’t think we were much of a chance of causing the upset last night, we gave the Storm way too many short fields to have any chance of being competitive. Of the Storm’s seven tries, the first five were all from short fields:
- Kelly lost ball 21m out;
- Fogarty dropped pass 19m out;
- Fermor lost ball 43m out;
- Fermor stripped 45m out; and
- Boyd lost ball 49m out.
The first three were scored on the set after the turnover, the last two had one repeat set (didn’t clean up a kick on last, conceded a penalty).

Exactly right Numbers.
I call that not getting into the arm wrestle and not respecting possession of the ball. If we can’t do that then we will lose by quite a margin against all comers.

[Upthetits]

To be honest the first 25mins I thought wow we deadset came to play.

Then we just lost the ball so many times it was a joke. Im certain the storm were actively trying to strip the ball all the time in the hope that after 3 or 4 penalties against them the ref would start to say we were just losing it.


Frustrating night but there was glimmers of what the future could hold in those first 20 mins

[Dooldog76]

It was interesting to see the reaction in the pressers from seibold and Holbrook last night. Holbrook's outlook was a lesson learned and he also called out Taylor for kicking it dead twice. I also loved his response to " where to now?" And he immediately replied "to beat Penrith." Loved it.
Seibold on the other hand looked completely broken and had no real response to the situation they were in.
Guess I'm trying to say that I rate Holbrook a lot and I'm confident the boys will improve next week. It's a process lads.

[GCTTSD]

It's just so frustrating that it's our own silly errors in our own half that's killing us. I do rate Holbrook as a coach though and you can see were slowly improving but it much you can really do straight away till we get rid of some of the dead wood. We really need some big outside backs, we are terrible becoming out of our own end and if it's a coaching plan to shift the ball side to side all the time coming out of our own end I think it needs to stop or we'll just keep dropping the ball and getting. Flogged, that's the one thing I don't like that Holbrook seems to have done with the tactics

[JunctionBlock]

Yep 100% correct. Smith just tore us apart with those short balls at the line.

I wanted Oates for that big body winger but looks like his career may be over with that compound fracture he picked up last night...

Looks like Oates has been cleared of a fractured femur. It was a large bruise and deep laceration. Should be back in three weeks. So thankfully his career isn’t over.

[Whats Doing]

I do rate Holbrook but we are going sideways far too much before we go forward. Also I would like Holbrook concentrate on developing a harder edge in our team. We just don’t win any of the collisions which is why we are getting murdered in the middle. Madge has continued to change the mindset of the Tigers which overall is a fairly average team but their intensity and dominating the ruck and collisions against the Drongoes is something I wish Holbrook concentrated on rather than looking pretty moving the ball sideways which is not getting us anywhere

[NZFan]

I do rate Holbrook but we are going sideways far too much before we go forward. Also I would like Holbrook concentrate on developing a harder edge in our team. We just don’t win any of the collisions which is why we are getting murdered in the middle. Madge has continued to change the mindset of the Tigers which overall is a fairly average team but their intensity and dominating the ruck and collisions against the Drongoes is something I wish Holbrook concentrated on rather than looking pretty moving the ball sideways which is not getting us anywhere

I tend to agree with this post WD. I like the way that Holbrook handles himself and he has shown that he is prepared to back up his talk with tough changes but I feel like we play far too deep and wide and don’t attack the middle enough. Its the Same style that Brennan tried to implement and it didn’t work. I don’t know whether it is a relic of his coaching or something that Holbrook is also trying to implement

[elltee]

I think Holbrook has identified we lack the punch needed to get over the gain line in the middle with our current forwards and has tried to build a plan to go around than through. It seems to work, we do gain those extra meters on the fringes. Hopefully when we add some strike forwards it will straighten them up in the years to come.