TITAN PETE
26-08-10, 12:47 PM
Andrew Bryan NRL.com Thu, 26 Aug 2010 11:51:00
Related Links
Use our Bailey Ladder Predictor Our time is now, says Tongue Roosters are not choking, says Carney Marshall vows to rein it in for the team Broncos need to toughen up, says Henjak"When you look at that ladder there is nothing between second and 11th or 12th. It?s a deadly business.? ? Brian Smith.
With that one comment, Roosters coach Brian Smith summed up what all NRL fans and players already knew; it is one of the closest Premiership races in recent memory.
Just two weeks out from the Telstra Premiership Finals, we are no closer to knowing who will be there in September, let alone who will win the Grand Final.
When players and coaches start talking mathematics, it is normally a sign they are no longer a realistic chance of making the finals ? but with just four points separating 5th from 12th, there is a real possibility that a team could come from the clouds to secure a finals berth.
NRL.com has crunched the numbers and has tried to simplify the finals scenarios for you ? from one extreme to the other!
But don?t take our word for it, get on to our Bailey Ladder Predictor and see where YOU think teams will finish the 2010 season!
St George Illawarra Dragons
Games: Knights (a), Rabbitohs (h)
Best case: Two wins, 38 points, Minor Premiers.
Worst Case: Two big losses ? mathematical possibility of finishing 4th.
Likely: One win from the next two games should see the Dragons collect their second J.J. Giltinan Shield in successive seasons? They?ll fancy their chances against both the Knights and Rabbitohs.
Gold Coast Titans
Games: Sharks (a), Wests Tigers (h)
Best Case: Two wins, 36 points, Minor Premiers.
Worst Case: Two losses, 32 points, finish 6th.
Likely: One win against either Sharks or Wests Tigers will see a top four finish and a home final.
Wests Tigers
Games: Storm (h), Titans (a)
Best Case: Two wins, 36 points, Minor Premiers.
Worst Case: Losses to Storm and Titans, 32 points, Finish 5th.
Likely: Tough two games to finish, but the Tigers would be confident of beating either the Storm at Leichhardt Oval or Titans to secure a top four finish.
Penrith Panthers
Games: Bulldogs (a), Sharks (h)
Best Case: Two wins, 34 points, Minor Premiers.
Worst Case: Two losses, 30 points, finish 6th.
Likely: The Panthers have the easiest run home on paper of any of the top eight teams. They would want to send a message to the others and win both games against Bulldogs and Sharks. They will probably finish on 34 points, 3rd and have a home Final at CUA Stadium.
Manly Sea Eagles
Games: Roosters (a), Bulldogs (h)
Best Case: Two wins, 32 points, finish 3rd.
Worst Case: Two losses, 28 points, miss the top 8eight.
Likely: The Sea Eagles look like finishing 5th, with a win over either the Roosters this Sunday, or the Bulldogs in the final Round. They look most likely to finish on 30 points and in 5th position.
Sydney Roosters
Games: Sea Eagles (h), Cowboys (a).
Best Case: Two wins, 32 points, finish 3rd.
Worst Case: Two losses, 28 points, miss the top eight.
Likely: While the Roosters have lost three games on the trot, they are still in good shape. It is a coin toss against Manly this Sunday, but they should win against the Cowboys and finish on 30 points and 6th.
New Zealand Warriors
Games: Broncos (h), Eels (a).
Best Case: Two wins, 32 points, finish 3rd.
Worst Case: Two losses, 28 points, miss the top eight.
Likely: The Warriors would secure a finals spot with a victory in one of their last two games, and on current form they are every chance of winning both. Most likely to finish on 30 points and 7th.
Brisbane Broncos
Games: Warriors (a), Raiders (h).
Best Case: Two wins, 30 points, 4th.
Worst Case: Two losses, 26 points, miss the top eight.
Likely: With a tough road trip to New Zealand this week, in all probability it will come down to a showdown against Canberra at Suncorp Stadium to see who finishes in 8th place.
Canberra Raiders
Games: Cowboys (h), Broncos (a)
Best Case: Two wins, 30 points, 6th
Worst Case: Two losses, Miss the top eight.
Likely: The Raiders have made an incredible late surge towards a finals berth, they should beat the Cowboys and then face a likely sudden-death match away to the Broncos with both team?s seasons on the line.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Games: Eels (h), Dragons (a)
Best Case: Two wins, 28 points, 6th.
Worst Case: Two losses, miss the top eight.
Likely: Depends how the South Sydney boys bounce back from their embarrassing capitulation to the Panthers. They need to win both games and hope the Broncos and Raiders slip up, but will most likely be booking an early holiday.
Newcastle Knights
Games: Dragons (h), Storm (a)
Best Case: Two wins, 28 points, 7th.
Worst Case: Two losses, miss the top eight.
Likely: It is a hard ask for the Knights ? they need to win both games against the Dragons and Storm and then hope the Raiders and Broncos lose games. Impossible ? no, but it looks like the Knights have left it a little late this year.
Parramatta Eels
Games: Rabbitohs (a), Warriors (h)
Best Case: Two wins, 28 points, 8th.
Worst Case: Two losses, miss the eight.
Likely: The loss to the Wests Tigers all but finished their season, they need to beat both the Rabbitohs and Warriors and hope the Broncos and Raiders lose. Their -56 point difference could be a big factor, but in reality, season 2010 looks like being a big disappointment for last year?s Grand Finalists.
Related Links
Use our Bailey Ladder Predictor Our time is now, says Tongue Roosters are not choking, says Carney Marshall vows to rein it in for the team Broncos need to toughen up, says Henjak"When you look at that ladder there is nothing between second and 11th or 12th. It?s a deadly business.? ? Brian Smith.
With that one comment, Roosters coach Brian Smith summed up what all NRL fans and players already knew; it is one of the closest Premiership races in recent memory.
Just two weeks out from the Telstra Premiership Finals, we are no closer to knowing who will be there in September, let alone who will win the Grand Final.
When players and coaches start talking mathematics, it is normally a sign they are no longer a realistic chance of making the finals ? but with just four points separating 5th from 12th, there is a real possibility that a team could come from the clouds to secure a finals berth.
NRL.com has crunched the numbers and has tried to simplify the finals scenarios for you ? from one extreme to the other!
But don?t take our word for it, get on to our Bailey Ladder Predictor and see where YOU think teams will finish the 2010 season!
St George Illawarra Dragons
Games: Knights (a), Rabbitohs (h)
Best case: Two wins, 38 points, Minor Premiers.
Worst Case: Two big losses ? mathematical possibility of finishing 4th.
Likely: One win from the next two games should see the Dragons collect their second J.J. Giltinan Shield in successive seasons? They?ll fancy their chances against both the Knights and Rabbitohs.
Gold Coast Titans
Games: Sharks (a), Wests Tigers (h)
Best Case: Two wins, 36 points, Minor Premiers.
Worst Case: Two losses, 32 points, finish 6th.
Likely: One win against either Sharks or Wests Tigers will see a top four finish and a home final.
Wests Tigers
Games: Storm (h), Titans (a)
Best Case: Two wins, 36 points, Minor Premiers.
Worst Case: Losses to Storm and Titans, 32 points, Finish 5th.
Likely: Tough two games to finish, but the Tigers would be confident of beating either the Storm at Leichhardt Oval or Titans to secure a top four finish.
Penrith Panthers
Games: Bulldogs (a), Sharks (h)
Best Case: Two wins, 34 points, Minor Premiers.
Worst Case: Two losses, 30 points, finish 6th.
Likely: The Panthers have the easiest run home on paper of any of the top eight teams. They would want to send a message to the others and win both games against Bulldogs and Sharks. They will probably finish on 34 points, 3rd and have a home Final at CUA Stadium.
Manly Sea Eagles
Games: Roosters (a), Bulldogs (h)
Best Case: Two wins, 32 points, finish 3rd.
Worst Case: Two losses, 28 points, miss the top 8eight.
Likely: The Sea Eagles look like finishing 5th, with a win over either the Roosters this Sunday, or the Bulldogs in the final Round. They look most likely to finish on 30 points and in 5th position.
Sydney Roosters
Games: Sea Eagles (h), Cowboys (a).
Best Case: Two wins, 32 points, finish 3rd.
Worst Case: Two losses, 28 points, miss the top eight.
Likely: While the Roosters have lost three games on the trot, they are still in good shape. It is a coin toss against Manly this Sunday, but they should win against the Cowboys and finish on 30 points and 6th.
New Zealand Warriors
Games: Broncos (h), Eels (a).
Best Case: Two wins, 32 points, finish 3rd.
Worst Case: Two losses, 28 points, miss the top eight.
Likely: The Warriors would secure a finals spot with a victory in one of their last two games, and on current form they are every chance of winning both. Most likely to finish on 30 points and 7th.
Brisbane Broncos
Games: Warriors (a), Raiders (h).
Best Case: Two wins, 30 points, 4th.
Worst Case: Two losses, 26 points, miss the top eight.
Likely: With a tough road trip to New Zealand this week, in all probability it will come down to a showdown against Canberra at Suncorp Stadium to see who finishes in 8th place.
Canberra Raiders
Games: Cowboys (h), Broncos (a)
Best Case: Two wins, 30 points, 6th
Worst Case: Two losses, Miss the top eight.
Likely: The Raiders have made an incredible late surge towards a finals berth, they should beat the Cowboys and then face a likely sudden-death match away to the Broncos with both team?s seasons on the line.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Games: Eels (h), Dragons (a)
Best Case: Two wins, 28 points, 6th.
Worst Case: Two losses, miss the top eight.
Likely: Depends how the South Sydney boys bounce back from their embarrassing capitulation to the Panthers. They need to win both games and hope the Broncos and Raiders slip up, but will most likely be booking an early holiday.
Newcastle Knights
Games: Dragons (h), Storm (a)
Best Case: Two wins, 28 points, 7th.
Worst Case: Two losses, miss the top eight.
Likely: It is a hard ask for the Knights ? they need to win both games against the Dragons and Storm and then hope the Raiders and Broncos lose games. Impossible ? no, but it looks like the Knights have left it a little late this year.
Parramatta Eels
Games: Rabbitohs (a), Warriors (h)
Best Case: Two wins, 28 points, 8th.
Worst Case: Two losses, miss the eight.
Likely: The loss to the Wests Tigers all but finished their season, they need to beat both the Rabbitohs and Warriors and hope the Broncos and Raiders lose. Their -56 point difference could be a big factor, but in reality, season 2010 looks like being a big disappointment for last year?s Grand Finalists.